Q&A with Roll Bama Roll

I will be cross-posting this entry with my other blog, The Power T. I had a recent Q&A with Rico (Qs 1-6) and Todd (Q 7) from Roll Bama Roll, a great Alabama blog from guys who I would never ever consider Bammers. So, that being said, here are their opinions on the questions I asked them:

1. The preseason prognostication for Alabama is all over the board, with Phil Steele being the most optimistic: 2nd in the SEC West. I agree with him in saying the LSU-Alabama winner will win the division. What are the expectations from the Alabama fan base? Do those expectations differ from the consensus of Alabama bloggers?

It's hard to get a read on the consensus of the Alabama fanbase. Many believe Alabama's fans to be incredibly unreasonable and have expectations that are too high too soon. However, there is also a sizeable portion of the fanbase that knows Nick Saban does not walk on water and that he can't merely appear on the sidelines and have everything fixed and perfected in his first season in Tuscaloosa. My personal take (and I've seen this echoed by many others) is that an 8-4 regular season is about what people are expecting this year. Anything less would be a bit of a disappointment, though it is certainly possible. I see Alabama as having two games they should unquestionably win (Western Carolina and Louisiana-Monroe), four that they should win (Houston, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt) and then there are six that could easily go either way (Arkansas, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Auburn.) While Alabama will unquestionably be the underdog in most (if not all) of those six, they are certainly winnable. If we pick up two of those six, I think that's a realistic expectation for his first season. His unquestionably a better coach and game manager than Mike Shula so I think 8-4 is quite a realistic outlook.

2. What lesser known players are poised to have breakout seasons in 2007? Why?

These kinds of questions are always difficult because it is hard to know how players with little or no game experience will turn out. I think a few young players could step up and shine including Roy Upchurch, Terry Grant and Javier Arenas. They've all show potential in the limited time they've gotten or in scrimmages and they could certainly give us more options on an offense that didn't have a lot of options. There are others, but I don't pretend to be Phil Steele, who I think actually can see into the future.

3. I believe John Parker Wilson has the tools and the weapons around him to challenge for 1st Team All-SEC. What are your thoughts on Wilson and your expectations?

He produced fairly good numbers last year for a sophomore QB that had to run for his life nearly every time the ball was snapped. Assuming he gets better line protection this year I imagine we could really see him turn into a fine QB. One thing he does need to do better is protect the ball. There were times last year where he threw it up for grabs when he should've taken a sack and other times he should've taken a sack and protected the ball but coughed up fumbles trying to produce a miracle. Making smarter decisions in those circumstances comes with experience and he has a full season under his belt so hopefully we'll see improvement in that area. Like I said though, with better line protection and better ball protection I think he can be a real threat given that he has two great targets in DJ Hall and Keith Brown.

4. What kind of environments do you expect for home games against LSU and Tennessee?

I imagine both of those games are going to be completely insane. Tennessee has always been a game that has fired up the crowds at Bryant-Denny, but I imagine given the hope that's in the air with Nick Saban on the sidelines that the passion should be increased many times over. LSU is also a team that people have never had trouble getting fired up for, but given the way Les Miles has been shooting his mouth off I imagine things will be crazy unless they take us out of the game early. I'm just happy I have tickets for both.

5. Are you personally worried about Nick Saban's trend of leaving jobs are 4 years, or less?

Yes and no. Yes due to the fact that it is a trend that can't be ignored and for the fact that he could quit tomorrow and we'd still have to pay him for the full contract. The Alabama Athletic Department definitely got the short end of the stick in the deal. I say no though because Saban's very existence (combined with his handsome salary) has seemed to rub the entire college football world the wrong way. He certainly isn't going back to the NFL and not many other schools could pay him more, much less actually would pay him more. Even if he doesn't win a national championship here and splits in four years, if he wins an SEC Championship or two and leaves us stacked with recruits like he did LSU, I'd be okay with that I think.

6. If Alabama could only win 1 game, and 1 game only, in 2007, who would you like it to be against? Why?

Auburn without a doubt. Losing five in a row to them has been miserable and putting an end to their streak would be both a joy and a relief. I obviously don't fancy losing to LSU or Tennessee, but I could handle those better this year than I could losing to Auburn again. In 2005, I would have answered this question with Tennessee, but now it is all Auburn.

7. What kind of changes will the Tide see on defense in the transition to Kevin Steele in terms of both alignment and theory?

I'm not sure calling this season "a transition to Kevin Steele" is completely accurate. Alabama will be running Saban's system, and Steele was brought in because of his exemplary work with the Florida State linebackers and because Saban's system relies heavily on them. That being said, Steele's hire is a huge boost for both Saban's system and the guys already on the team. The FSU linebackers over the last few years were the heart and soul of that terrific defense, and they played like they would rather tackle than breathe. It's this kind of coaching ability that makes him ideal for a system so dependent on the linebackers. With only three down linemen, it's the role of the "jack" linebacker to both act as a rush end and play in space like a traditional LB. Guys like Keith Saunders and Zeke Knight are perfect for this, since both are physical enough to rush the passer but neither really has the size to play on the line, and both are also fast/athletic enough to play both the run and the pass out in space. I suppose the easiest way to answer your question is to say that Alabama will shift to a 3-4 alignment instead of the typical 4-3, and will be more complex than the simplistic "do one thing and do it better than anyone else" philosophy we saw from Joe Kines the past few seasons. That's not to take away from Kines, of course, considering he produced two of the best defenses in the country and even had a green unit with no depth up front ranked in the top 25 last year in total defense, but his strategies were so dependent on sound, fundamental football that it took players the caliber of DeMeco Ryans, Roman Harper, et al to be dominant in it. Given one more season, he would have certainly had these guys whipped into shape and schooled in the proper techniques to be dominant again but, alas, it was not to be. Enter Saban and Steele, two defensive masterminds who love a good blitz just as much, and probably more, than any other defensive coach in the country. Saban inherits an Alabama team that is very thin in the front seven (we have a converted center starting at NT), but deep, talented, and fast in the secondary. He's said several times that a lot of what we'll see this year will be done out of a nickel package to take advantage of the talent among the DBs. This isn't too far removed from the 3-4 alignment he likes, but using a nickelback as a fourth linebacker will probably pose some problems against the run. I'm not overly familiar with his time at Miami, but what I know from watching the Saban defenses at LSU is that they are both fast and disciplined, and I expect the Alabama defense to be no different. I also expect to see some more complex blitzes from the new schemes. Kines rarely disguised his blitzes but he had coached his players so well that opposing offenses couldn't stop them. With Saban, I imagine we'll see a lot more zone blitzing, and probably far more man coverage than we were used to last season.

I believe 8-4 is a conservative estimate for this Tide squad. As I've stated plenty of times, I fully expect the winner of the LSU-Alabama tilt to win that division. I think the talent on this team would have gone 8-4 under Mike Shula in 2007, and Saban+SuperFriends are worth a win or two. Big thanks to Rico and Todd - visit their site, NOW!

The Jumbled 2nd Tier of the Pac 10

If you've picked up a single preseason preview magazine, it probably has USC as the #1 team in America. Why shouldn't they be? They return a senior QB, return 10 players from the best defense in the conference, with possibly 4 1st round picks on that side of the ball alone. They have a slew of running backs who are all capable of averaging at least 4 yards per carry. Oh, and they have the best coach in the country. USC's status as the top dog in the Pac 10 is not going to be challenged in 2007, if we're all correct in our assessments.

The really exciting thing about the Pac 10 in 2007 is going to be the absolute clusterdryhump from #2 through #6. California, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, and Oregon State will all jockey to finish as the #1 Loser so they can make the Rose Bowl. A lot of pundits peg Cal for that spot, but I'll get into why I disagree later (similar reasons to what the Genius has said). If you put those 5 teams into any order in the standings, I could understand why you would. Hell, you could convince me that Arizona's new offensive scheme could add them into the equation. I won't though, because Tuitama needs to show consistency while healthy.

Why isn't Cal the clear #2? Why don't I believe UCLA will challenge? Why am I falling in love with the Ducks and the Devils? Read on to find out. Beware, though, as I'm using a lot of statistical analysis up front, with some eyeball analysis at the badunkadunk. Before the table, I'd like to give you a key, if you will, of what the abbreviations stand for, and what kind of correlation they have to results the next season.

CGVR: Close Game Variance Ratio - Started by Phil Steele, and adjusted slightly by me, and given a name. Steele has done extensive research on close game outcomes. When teams are either very lucky or very unlucky, they have a good chance of different fortunes the next season. A close game, with my adjustment, is any final score within 8 points either direction. A team with a +4 in CGVR means they had 4 net close game victories. You can find the probabilities for this metric here. Basically, just remember +2 or more means a team's record will not improve, and -2 or more means it will improve the next season.

DDH: Draft Day Hangover - Straight from Phil Steele. His tool applies points to each round of the draft for which a player was taken. A 1st round pick is worth 7 points, a 2nd rounder is 5, 3rd round is 4, and so on. Anything higher than 12, per Steele, means a record decrease the next season.

RS: Returning Starters (not K/P) - From everyone and everywhere. 11,12, and 13 RS is neutral. Anything more is a good thing, any less could be a downward slide.

TO: Turnovers - Phil Steele has found a correlation with next season success or failure based on turnovers. If your team was +8 or more last season, you could expect that luck to even out and have a worse record the next season. The inverse is true of -8 or worse.

CAPP: Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage - My stat that bases ranking of a conference by the yardage stats in conference play in comparison to strength of opposition. The way to apply it is like Steele does with his ypg theory. If a team, say, Oregon, finishes 5th in the Pac 10, but was statistically 1st in the conference, you can expect them to improve their record the next season.

OVERALL: This is where I combine the 5 metrics from above, and see if the team is trending up or down. The more arrows the better.

Team	CGVR	DDH	RS	TO	CAPP	OVERALL
Cal	E	16	13	+6	4th
Oregon St	+4	6	16	+8	5th
UCLA	E	2	20	+4	7th
Oregon	+1	4	14	-10	1st
Arizona St	E	6	14	-1	3rd

That took me a long time to put together, so you better love it. From the table alone, it looks like Cal and Oregon State are going to take a step back, while the lower 3 all will move up. However, there has to be more to the story, right? For sure. The schedules of the 5 teams, as well as talent have to come into play. Let's take a took at it.


The Bears have the most raw talent of the 5 teams jockeying for position to place. With the WR corps of Jackson, Hawkins, and Jordan, combined with a competent quarterback, they can beat anybody on any given day. Their defense is a huge concern, especially up front. They have a good coach in Jeff Tedford, who could be better than Mike Belotti and Dennis Erickson right now, but he doesn't have the accomplishments to prove it. The biggest concern for them finishing #2 is that of the 4 games against their peers on the 2nd tier, only 1 is at home. Cal has been a damn good team in Berkeley, so it definitely matters for them. They get the Beavers in Memorial, but the other 3 are on the road and all of them can beat Cal.


Not only did Oregon State come out with 4 net close victories, they also were on the positive side of variance for turnovers. Those 2 are the biggest trends in the table, in my opinion. They also weren't as good as 3rd statistically. On the other side of things, they return their starting running back and all of their sack monsters. Like Cal, they only get 1 home game against the 4 possible bridesmaids. I think the Beavers suffer the greatest fall in the Pac 10.


I find the Bruins to be the toughest to project in this group. They have an insane amount of returning starts, didn't lose much to the draft, and weren't on either side of variance at all. They weren't statistically the 4th best team in the conference. In fact, they were 7th! Stats aren't everything, but they are something. They also have the worst head coach of the 5 Susan Lucci's. Preseason rags are pimping UCLA to be #2 or #3 in the conference, with an outside shot at the title. But Dorrell has been anything but impressive, saved only by a miracle against USC. They do get 3 of the 4 games at home, where the Dorrell Bruins are 20-5.


The team with the most green, up arrows is only getting love from Phil Steele, for the same reasons I'm giving them love. They were on the bad side of variance for turnovers, have returning starters, and were the BEST statistical team in the Pac 10 last year. If I did guarantees, one would be Oregon finishing #2 in the conference this year. But watch out, Dennis Dixon is spending the summer missing splitfingers, which is a summer without football preparation. This alone could screw them out of #2. The biggest reason Oregon underachieved last year was Dixon's ability to put it between the numbers of a receiver ... from the defense. If he comes around, Oregon will walk away with the Mark Martin Award. Oh, and they get 3 of 4 in Eugene, the toughest place to play in the Pac 10.


As you can see in the table above, Arizona State has 3 pretty green arrows, signifying a major move up the ladder in the Pac 10. This is without considering they signed a National Championship head coach. Erickson, while as shady as the earth under a 400 year oak, wins games. He'll take Arizona State to a new level, and it could be sooner than people expect. They had no variance, positive or negative. They return 14 starts, including a very promising offense. If the defense can hold serve, they might take that #2 spot. They split the games with the other 4 Kevin Federlines, 2 in Tempe, 2 on the road.

How will they all end up? Who will be the beneficiary of a Rose Bowl trip, while not truly earning it? You'll find out in my Pac 10 Predictions in a week or two or three. (This truly wasn't a tease, but yeah, watch for it.)

EDIT: Yes, I realize there's a huge gap before the table. I have no idea why, and I'm waiting on help from blogger. If anyone knows why, e-mail me at thepowert at gmail dot com)

The Tim Tebow Myth(?)

As we roll through July, with visions set upon sleeping through August, the college football hype machine is beginning to rev itself up, ready to flatten the universe like a Zamboni to ice. One of the main topics this offseason has been Super T_T, Tim Tebow. Whether it's Florida fans hoisting him atop their proverbial shoulders and bronzing his helmet for their Hall of Fame, or the lame lame lame lame lame lame ass reincarnation of the Chuck Norris turned Jack Bauer, now Tim Tebow, jokes about invincibility, you've had plenty of Tebowtainment. He's loved in Gainesville, but hated in every college football city in the South. Would you have it any differently, though? Tim Tebow is what college football is all about - a legend on his campus, and despised by his opponents. He's a handsome, promising athlete, but in Knoxville, Baton Rouge, Athens, and so forth, he's a "fagz0r d00d."

Regardless of the social opinions on Tebow, there is a real argument about how well he played in 2006, and how well he will play in 2007. There is no answer to the latter, because nobody knows for sure how well the spread option will work in the SEC on a weekly basis. Basically, we all have to be members of the Waitnsee Tribe.

However, the former discussion of his 2006 accomplishments is what has become heated, and needs to be addressed. Florida fans will point to his amazing passer rating in SEC play, his 5+ yards per carry, and his high school passing records. The opposition will make way too many fullback jokes, which is so 2006, it's basically Borat. So, let's dig into Tebow's 2006 stats.




Passing: 22/33 for 358 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 201.7 rating
Rushing: 89 carries for 469 yards, 5.3 ypc, 8 TD
2 sore years from headset






Those numbers seem pretty good for a true freshman in spot duty. But are they really indicators of how well Tebow will quarterback the Gators through a tough SEC slate? I don't think so, and I'll show you why.

In 8 SEC Games + SECCG: 5/10 for 75 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 59 carries for 317 yards, 5.4 ypc, 4 TD

In 2 Games Against UCF and W. Carolina: 16/21 for 281 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 15 carries for 109 yards, 7.3 ypc, 2 TD

In 8 Games Against Top 40 Defenses: 4/5 for 60 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 50 carries for 191 yards, 3.8 ypc, 5 TD

What do I find interesting from these numbers? First and foremost, the sample sizes are way, way, way (did I say way?) too small to draw any stable conclusions either way. However, I do want to point out a few things.

1. Of Tebow's 33 passes, 63.6% of them were against Central Florida and Western Carolina. 78.5% of his passing yards came in those two games. The statistical basis that Florida's fans point to for Tebow's immediate success is rooted in 2 games against their weakest foes.

2. Tebow ran well in the SEC, but he didn't throw enough to really get a feel for his passing abilities. He completed only 50% of his passes in the SEC, but 80% against good defenses overall. He was 1/5 against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, two of the lesser defenses in the SEC in 2006.

3. Against top 40 defenses, Tebow's ypc dropped by a yard and a half. It makes sense, really, as most runners have lesser stats against better competition. 3.8 ypc is nothing to hang your hat on, though.

4. Tebow did not attempt a pass against 5 teams: Southern Miss (season opener), Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, and Arkansas. To point out the obvious, there are 4 SEC teams listed there. That's 44% of the SEC games he played.

With those 4 main points, I feel that anybody who says Tebow will be good or bad, has no idea. There simply isn't enough enough data to make that argument statistically. He didn't throw against 4 of the 9 SEC teams he played! Most of his passing stats were accumulated against a D-1 doormat and a D-1AA team. So, the jury is out, and this post gives you no conclusion. Like Memento, you decide what happens.

OU Loses Schollies; or Tulsa Thanks the Lord

Everyone has already covered the punishment for Oklahoma handed down today by the NCAA. Message board Sooners were outraged, blogging Sooners were thankful. The Associated Press reported that the Sooners will lose two scholarships for two more seasons, through 2010. They also must erase their 8 victories from 2005, their worst season of this decade. Around the Great Plains, wretched football programs rejoice. Now, Baylor, Tulsa, Southern Methodist, and Kansas have a better chance at picking up a 3 star player from the region. WATCH OUT MID MAJORS!

"When reached on his cell phone, Quinn said he did not pay any attention to the infractions committee's ruling on Oklahoma, calling it "dumb" and referring to it with an expletive."

Classy fellow right there. He breaks the rules, gets money for nothing, gets kicked out of school, tarnishes his name and his former school, yet doesn't care and deflects? Is he from Alabama? I keed, I keed. I wonder what Rhett Bomar has to say about all of it now?



Seriously, this decision doesn't effect Oklahoma at all. Everyone will remember that hey were 8-4 in 2005. The scholarships they are losing would have gone to projects, not 5 star stud tailbacks. Bob Stoops will still be able to hang his hat on an amazing record. This does pave the way for an interesting situation for USC and their possible violations. If the allegations are true, then USC could see their 2004 record stripped, and possibly their National Title.

Karl Dorrell Needs ...

Karl Dorrell hasn't been mentioned much around the country as a coach on the hot seat, but if you talk with a Bruin fan for longer than 3 minutes you'll come to find out that a strong portion of the fan base wants him gone. I was taken aback a little, so I decided I'd look further into the issue. Bruins fans probably already know most, if not all, of what I'm about to outline. Still, they might like some outside reassurance.

In Karl Dorrell's four seasons as head coach of the Bruins, he's amassed a 29-21 record (.580 win %), 19-14 in the Pac 10. He's 1-3 against cross-town rival USC, 1-3 in bowl games, and hasn't won a Pac 10 Championship.

His predecessor, Bob Toledo, was fired after a 7-5 regular season in 2002. His achievements? 49-32 overall (.605 win %), 32-24 in the Pac 10. He was 3-4 against USC, 1-2 in bowls, but missing a bowl 3 years, but won 1 outright Pac 10 Championship, and tied for a Co-Championship.

Toledo was beaten by more than 2 touchdowns 12 times during his stay in Pasadena, or 2 times a season. Dorrell has been beaten by more than 2 touchdowns 9 times during his current tenure, or 2.25 times a season.

Bob Toledo took over a program that was 35-23 over the 5 years prior to his arrival. Karl Dorrell took over a program that was 35-24 the 5 years prior to his arrival.

With just these simple facts, I can see why some UCLA fans think Dorrell should be canned like Oscar the Grouch. So, what does Karl Dorrell need to keep the fanny from being warm?

From afar, I'd say he needs to beat USC (again) and finish 1st or 2nd in the conference. They have the returning starters (20!), the expectations , and the schedule to finish in the top 2 of the Pac 10.

Maybe Bruins Nation will chime in on what they need Dorrell to do to win them over.

Denver is a Good City

I'm back from Denver, back into the daily grind of advertising sales from 8-5 daily, and back to waiting for 50-some-odd days until our first college football Saturday. The waiting is killing me, but at this point, it feels better than say - 20 days. At 20 days, it's so close you can taste it, but you still have to wait 3 weeks.

Anyway, slow news days right now, so I should be able to post the Big East APP Breakdown and make some headway on the Swing Players series. But not right now, real work is in the way. Of course, I'm wasting all this precious time by catching up on the hundreds of blogs I read, as well as typing this entry.

Where to start ...

Smart Football has a great, lengthy entry on the death of the Run and Shoot offense ... The Wizard of Odds started an interesting series showcasing different programs' season posters ... SMQ has intertubes problems, so my favorite blog is down for now ... Dawg Sports and Roll Bama Roll have posted (or begun posting) their list for their teams' respective toughest games ... EDSBS (as everyone knows already) pulled the wool over someone, and that someone is actually two idiotic guys.

Really slow time right now, but the onslaught will be coming from all of us bloggers across the country very soon. I can feel it!

Programming Note

I just wanted to inform my loyal reader that I will be on vacation starting in ohhhhhhhh 30 minutes through Sunday. I don't post daily as of right now, so I doubt you'll miss me much. However, I didn't want to leave you all with a "House Rock Built" type mystery, so there you go. Upon my return, we'll speed things up and become a daily blog for you to waste your time.

Denver, here I come.

NCAA Reconsidering Text Ban

The Associated Press is reporting that "the NCAA will reconsider three rules, including one that bans coaches from sending text messages to recruits, at its Aug. 9 board of directors meeting."

Honestly, I have very little to say about the actual story, but I wanted an excuse to create some more fake "real texts" from coaches to players. I see it as a neverending mana pool of hilarity. Then again, I'm easily amused, and you readers out there might find it less than funny. Regardless, here are some I've been lucky enough to see:



"u can come join us n b part of teh angelz at USC n maybe c my buddy will ferel ... we can get u a house or cashmoniez or wutever .... hit me up d00d"





">:O y u throwin da ball their? thats teh kind a coachin i give ya yup teh ol ball coach tells ya where 2 throw it jus sling it round"






"yarrrrrrr me matey dun u want 2 livez with out scurviez!?11?!~ we pillagez teh villagez which is a cymbal 4 winning ballgamez~!!@ we hunt 4 hidden treazures which r touchdwons!"





"2 wurds $$$$$$$$$$"








"aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"








Those are just some of the classics I've happen to come across, you know, during my years of being recruited by every program anywhere. I hope they reinstate text messages as a means of communication. As we've all seen with the Houston Nutt Chronicles, we could possibly see the REAL texts that REAL coaches send. I think it'd be amazingly hilarious to see what kind of texting approaches these coaches take. Is Jim Tressel a phonetic guy, a punctuation guy? WHO KNOWS?! I'd like to, though.

APP Breakdown: The ACC

I've been taking awhile to post all of these series (APP and Swing Players), but I don't really disappoint myself. It's like a practice of "hurry up and wait." I can get all of these done quickly, and we'll still be in July. Still weeks and weeks away from the promised land of beer, chips and dips, hard liquor, cheering, booing, drinking, drinking, drinking, sleeping, typing, and all because of this little sport we love.

Anywho, the ACC was ridiculed in 2006 for being an awful, awful conference. I think it was a little better than the pundits thought, but really, the argument was hard, so I stopped. The conference was deep, it seemed. Eight teams made a bowl, but only one to the BCS: an 11 win Wake Forest team that not only had a coach with a rabbit's foot in his pocket, but must have been owed a favor by the Man Upstairs.

I knew as soon as 2006 hit 2007 that in 5 months, I'd be talking about how Wake Forest was charmed and would return to the mean in 2007. I knew I'd talk about how Florida State and Miami were statistically pretty good, but their achievements were poor. I found the ACC APP Breakdown to be the most interesting, but I can't tell you why. Maybe you can figure it out. Oh, and for those just joining me in progress, here is the original explanation for the APP, as well as the breakdowns for the SEC, Pac 10, Big 10, and Big 12.

Here is the ACC's Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Clemson 125.3
2. Boston College 111.7
3. Georgia Tech 108.4
4. Maryland 103.7
5. NC State 102.3
6. Florida State 98.6
7. Duke 98.3
8. Virginia Tech 94.2
9. Wake Forest 93.8
10. North Carolina 90.8
11. Miami 87.3
12. Virginia 85.4

It seems like the ACC was a defensive-heavy conference. Only 5 teams scored above average, and the entire conference was pretty jumbled in regards to the TOAPP scores. Virginia in last with an 85.4 is pretty decent for a last place score. Florida State, who fired Jeff Bowden and hired Jimbo Fisher, wasn't terrible - barely below average. Could it be that there is more to the problem than the offense? Miami's offense has fallen so far since the early part of this decade. If they can get that offense up to average, they'd be in the driver's seat.

Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):






No surprise here. CJ Spiller and James Davis combined for over 2,000 yards last season, all with a mediocre QB in the backfield with them. They return for 2007, along with 3 OL starters, so they could produce just as well (160.9 ROAPP). Florida State and Miami ranked 11th and 10th, respectively, in ROAPP, better than only Duke. This is where their offenses struggled. Georgia Tech finished 2nd, pointing to the assumption that Tashard Choice saved the team from Reggie Ball.

Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):






What else would you expect? Duke is the worst BCS conference program. I will say that Re'quan Boyette might be a tiny light at the end of the tunnel, as he averaged 4.5 yards per carry. At Clemson, Arkansas, and other successful rushing attacks, 4.5 ypc might be awful, but at Duke, it's a miracle. Boyette only had 87 carries, so he didn't have much to do with the offense. I'd like to see the Blue Devils give him some more carries in 2007, he might help them win A game.

Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):






Admittedly, I was on the 2007 Matt Ryan for Heisman bandwagon as soon as the 2006 season ended. However, his 3:2 TD:INT ratio is a little concerning, as well as his 6.89 yards per attempt. He had a better 2005 than 2006, so I'm not sure why I'm so high on him. BC's receivers contain 4 guys who can contribute, but none are stars. I think the Eagles will put up better passing numbers than 2006, but I have concern about new starters on the offensive line.

Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):






They scored an 81.7, which isn't all that terrible. It's bad, don't get me wrong, but in other conferences, the last place POAPP scores were out of this world bad. The Cavaliers had to break in redshirt James Sewell over the last 7 games, and while his numbers were "meh," he started to show some progress. He had a good game against a great Miami defense. He should improve in 2007, thus improving the entire offense. Oh, and surprisingly, Wake Forest had the 11th rated pass offense. I knew they were below average, but this low?

On the other side of the ball, you might find some surprises. Here is Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. Virginia Tech 137.8
2. Clemson 122.0
3. Miami 118.1
4. Florida State 113.6
5. Virginia 109.7
6. Georgia Tech 99.9
7. NC State 99.0
8. Boston College 98.4
9. North Carolina 91.2
10. Wake Forest 89.6
11. Maryland 81.6
12. Duke 74.3

While there are only 5 teams above average for RDAPP, take a look at teams 6 through 8, all right there around average. Miami and Florida State are still taking care of business on defense. Look at Clemson at #2. How could a team with a good offense and a good defense finish in the middle of the ACC? We'll talk about that later. Notice Wake at #10 - the idea that the defense won them the ACC Title is hogwash, and this is more evidence that Wake will crash back to earth this upcoming season. The same can be said for Maryland, who will either improve their defense or finish in the lower quarter of the conference.

Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):






Miami finished with a 166.4 score, showing they still have the nastiness on defense. Overall, 8 teams (!!!) were above the average mark for rush defense. GT, FSU, and VT all scored very well, and BC, Clemson, UVA, NCST, and Wake all came in above 100. The Canes' defense must replace tackle Kareem Brown and tackle Bryan Pata (sorry). Still, McCray returns, as well as highly talented Hendricks and Bailey. All in all, it could be just as difficult to successfully run the ball in the ACC in 2007 as it was in 2006.

Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):






Ouch! The only BCS team who did worse in their conference in RDAPP was Purdue in the Big 10. The Terps scored a 68.3, which in the simplest terms, is putrid. They lose their NT and 2 of the top 3 tacklers, who were LBs. They have untested talent in their 2 deep in the defensive line, but I really can't see them improving that much to make a difference. NC State and North Carolina were almost as bad.

Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):






No surprise here. The Hokies always seem to produce at least 1 NFL draft pick from their secondary. But here's why VT could make a run to the national title game: even with the loss of ROV Aaron Rouse, VT returns the best secondary in the ACC. Brandon Flowers was 3rd team All American, Victor Harris was a full time starter, and backup CB Roland Minor started 12 games in 2005. DJ Parker is a returning starter at FS. Their new starter at ROV? SO Dorian Porch, who runs a 4.4, squats 500 pounds, and has a 40 inch vertical. Sounds like the secondary will be fine. Clemson, NC State, and Virginia all scored very well, and all 3 return at least 2 starters in the back.

Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):






Hello again, old friend. We all understand - you don't have the talent or speed to compete with these vertical passing attacks. Maybe JR Jabari Marshall, who was a RB last year, can help with his sub-4.4 speed. I doubt it, though, as the passing games in the ACC will only get better in 2007. We'll root for you, and pray, too.

Now, the big money shot, if you will. It all comes together to see how the teams fared overall. Here is Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. Clemson 123.7
2. Virginia Tech 116.0
3. Florida State 106.1
4. Boston College 105.1
5. Georgia Tech 104.2
6. Miami 102.7
7. NC State 100.7
8. Virginia 97.6
9. Maryland 92.7
10. Wake Forest 91.7
11. North Carolina 91.0
12. Duke 86.3

This is why the ACC APP Breakdown was so fun. The ACC standings were the most inaccurate in comparison the stats. Wake Forest, who won the conference, was the 10th best statistical team. The top 4 teams in CAPP didn't play for the title. What does it all mean? Well, without taking any other variables into consideration, you could expect Maryland and Wake Forest to really fall hard in 2007. If you're a betting person, please fade those two clubs over the first 3 or 4 weekends. Miami and Florida State should rebound to their normal areas. NC State could see a rise. But what about Clemson? #1 statistically, middle of the pack finish. Normally I would predict a top finish for them, but I feel that this is more than variance for them. I think Tommy Bowden is an awful coach. Thus, no change. Sometimes a team can play well and lose close games, but Clemson didn't. They were -1 in CGVR for the regular season (close games), and that was the game against South Carolina. I think Bowden is 100% to blame.

I feel like if I have any ACC readers, they should give some feedback.