| W-L | This Week | PR | ||||
| 1 | Auburn | 12-0 | vs. #15 South Carolina (9-3) | 1 | ||
| 2 | Oregon | 11-0 | at Oregon St (5-6) | 2 | ||
| 3 | TCU | 12-0 | BYE | 4 | ||
| 4 | Wisconsin | 11-1 | BYE | 5 | ||
| 5 | Ohio State | 11-1 | BYE | 8 | ||
| 6 | Stanford | 11-1 | BYE | 7 | ||
| 7 | Arkansas | 10-2 | BYE | 11 | ||
| 8 | Mich State | 11-1 | BYE | 10 | ||
| 9 | Oklahoma | 10-2 | vs. #12 Nebraska (10-2) | 14 | ||
| 10 | Alabama | 9-3 | BYE | 9 | ||
| 11 | LSU | 10-2 | BYE | 6 | ||
| 12 | Nebraska | 10-2 | vs. #9 Oklahoma (10-2) | 18 | ||
| 13 | Nevada | 11-1 | at Louisiana Tech (5-6) | 19 | ||
| 14 | Boise State | 10-1 | vs. Utah St (4-7) | 3 | ||
| 15 | South Carolina | 9-3 | vs. #1 Auburn (12-0) | 15 | ||
| 16 | Virginia Tech | 10-2 | vs. #20 FSU (9-3) | 13 | ||
| 17 | Oklahoma St | 10-2 | BYE | 12 | ||
| 18 | Missouri | 10-2 | BYE | 16 | ||
| 19 | Texas A&M | 9-3 | BYE | 17 | ||
| 20 | FSU | 9-3 | vs. #16 Virginia Tech (10-2) | 21 | ||
| 21 | West Virginia | 8-3 | vs. Rutgers (4-7) | - | ||
| 22 | Miss State | 8-4 | BYE | 23 | ||
| 23 | Utah | 10-2 | BYE | 25 | ||
| 24 | UCF | 9-3 | vs. SMU (7-5) | - | ||
| 25 | Northern Illinois | 10-2 | vs. Miami (OH) (8-4) | - | ||
| Dropped Out: Arizona, NC State, USC, Iowa | ||||||
| Also Receiving Votes: Arizona, Maryland, Hawaii | ||||||
CFBZ Top 25
Behind The Scene's Of "Intuition"
This is Behind The Scenes of my new video for "Intuition" its gonna be crazy, we had so much fun that day. i can't wait to release it...
if you havnt heard the song, check it out/download it here
--> http://twiturm.com/pjsih
In Perspective: Iron Bowl 2010
Let's get this out there right away: Losing this game sucked. It wasn't entirely unexpected (as you might recall, I called it a 31-27 Auburn win...pretty close), but it was still an absolutely miserable experience. And I'm guessing it'll remain that way right up until Auburn wins the BCS Championship (because they will) and beyond.
Now, I'm not about to assume the role of a 2009 Auburn fan and try to spin a "moral victory" out of what happened in the Iron Bowl, okay? But let's put this in perspective. Bama had them beat and let them off the hook. Minus two egregious pass plays that resulted in TDs, the defense played it's game of the year. They did everything I thought they needed to do to win: they forced Auburn into 3rd and long situations, the linemen kept Newton in front of them and then finished tackles, they expertly defended the middle of the field against play action passes, even the defensive backs (most of whom I called out by name prior to the game) did a mostly amazing job covering their assignments and offering run support. The first half was a master class in defending Gus Malzahn's offense. The second half wasn't quite so strong, but still should have been good enough to win. Like I said in Unsolicited Advice, there's not shutting Auburn down, you just have to slow them down enough to let your offense win it.
And for a quarter and a half, the Tide offense did it's part. Jim McElwain called about half a game that put his 2009 SEC Championship masterpiece to shame. He got the ball to Julio Jones early and often to devastating effect, and utilized smart scheming to minimize Nick Fairley's impact on the game.
But then the guy who never fumbles fumbled, and the football improbably rocketed 20 yards straight down the sideline, mere inches from the boundary, into the endzone.
Not long after, Fairley whipped redshirt freshman Anthony Steen (starting his first SEC game in place of injured Freshman All-American right guard Barrett Jones) and stripped Greg McElroy of the ball. In another surreal moment, the shellshocked Steen stood motionless over his quarterback as the ball skittered around his feet, realizing too late that it was a live ball. Fairley recovered.
Both plays were equal parts great plays by Auburn and outright bizarre occurrences that, had the ball bounced another way, as the saying goes, should have, at minimum, resulted in two field goal attempts for Alabama. And even if the young Tide kickers made just one of those two...they would have represented the winning points.
But this is still just the first half we're talking about. The Bama offense had 30 minutes worth of opportunity to finish the job after half time. However, in the second half, the offense, which had been so dynamic and unpredictable early, crawled back into it's shell and could only muster 3 points the rest of the way. They tried to play it safe and let the offensive line grind out the victory, but as suspected going in, the interior line was not man enough to play straight up against the Fairley-led Auburn line. This was definitely not 2009's OL.
As if things weren't going badly enough, Bama's best opportunity to retake the lead late in the game was without two of it's top receivers due to injuries. And then McElroy was knocked out of the game with a concussion. The defense managed to secure one more offensive possession, but at that point, circumstances had thrust a redshirt freshman with minimal playing experience into the untenable position of leading a last-second scoring drive. It was destined to fail.
In the end, that's kind of how the whole game felt: like destiny. Auburn was just destined to carry on it's national title chase. Sure, scheme and execution had a lot to do with it, and Auburn having two world class players did, too. But you can't hep but look back at the two bizarre fumbles and all the key late injuries and think, "It was just GOING to happen." And you have to come to terms with it.
Sometimes you're just on the other end of Cody's Hand.
But, again, not to make this a MORAL VICTORY~!!! situation, but think of it this way: Auburn came to Bryant-Denny with one of it's best teams ever, maybe it's best player ever, and played what, in no uncertain terms, was a rebuilding Tide team. Despite that, it took two freakish plays and a rash of injuries to key personnel for Auburn to escape with a 1-point victory. Not taking anything away from Auburn: they earned the win, they deserved to win. But they got a lot of help along the way, too.
Don't take this game as an indication that Auburn is on it's way up and Bama is on it's way down. Quite the opposite. This is as high as Auburn is going to be for a long time. And 9-3 is about as low as Bama is going to be for a good, long while, too. And it was a 1-point game. The future is bright for the Tide, and I'm really excited about the 2011 team.
In fact, I'll be back in the coming weeks to review the 2010 season as a whole and figure out what went right, what went wrong, and what it means moving forward, specifically next season (spoiler: it's positive.)
Now, I'm not about to assume the role of a 2009 Auburn fan and try to spin a "moral victory" out of what happened in the Iron Bowl, okay? But let's put this in perspective. Bama had them beat and let them off the hook. Minus two egregious pass plays that resulted in TDs, the defense played it's game of the year. They did everything I thought they needed to do to win: they forced Auburn into 3rd and long situations, the linemen kept Newton in front of them and then finished tackles, they expertly defended the middle of the field against play action passes, even the defensive backs (most of whom I called out by name prior to the game) did a mostly amazing job covering their assignments and offering run support. The first half was a master class in defending Gus Malzahn's offense. The second half wasn't quite so strong, but still should have been good enough to win. Like I said in Unsolicited Advice, there's not shutting Auburn down, you just have to slow them down enough to let your offense win it.
And for a quarter and a half, the Tide offense did it's part. Jim McElwain called about half a game that put his 2009 SEC Championship masterpiece to shame. He got the ball to Julio Jones early and often to devastating effect, and utilized smart scheming to minimize Nick Fairley's impact on the game.
But then the guy who never fumbles fumbled, and the football improbably rocketed 20 yards straight down the sideline, mere inches from the boundary, into the endzone.
Not long after, Fairley whipped redshirt freshman Anthony Steen (starting his first SEC game in place of injured Freshman All-American right guard Barrett Jones) and stripped Greg McElroy of the ball. In another surreal moment, the shellshocked Steen stood motionless over his quarterback as the ball skittered around his feet, realizing too late that it was a live ball. Fairley recovered.
Both plays were equal parts great plays by Auburn and outright bizarre occurrences that, had the ball bounced another way, as the saying goes, should have, at minimum, resulted in two field goal attempts for Alabama. And even if the young Tide kickers made just one of those two...they would have represented the winning points.
But this is still just the first half we're talking about. The Bama offense had 30 minutes worth of opportunity to finish the job after half time. However, in the second half, the offense, which had been so dynamic and unpredictable early, crawled back into it's shell and could only muster 3 points the rest of the way. They tried to play it safe and let the offensive line grind out the victory, but as suspected going in, the interior line was not man enough to play straight up against the Fairley-led Auburn line. This was definitely not 2009's OL.
As if things weren't going badly enough, Bama's best opportunity to retake the lead late in the game was without two of it's top receivers due to injuries. And then McElroy was knocked out of the game with a concussion. The defense managed to secure one more offensive possession, but at that point, circumstances had thrust a redshirt freshman with minimal playing experience into the untenable position of leading a last-second scoring drive. It was destined to fail.
In the end, that's kind of how the whole game felt: like destiny. Auburn was just destined to carry on it's national title chase. Sure, scheme and execution had a lot to do with it, and Auburn having two world class players did, too. But you can't hep but look back at the two bizarre fumbles and all the key late injuries and think, "It was just GOING to happen." And you have to come to terms with it.
Sometimes you're just on the other end of Cody's Hand.
But, again, not to make this a MORAL VICTORY~!!! situation, but think of it this way: Auburn came to Bryant-Denny with one of it's best teams ever, maybe it's best player ever, and played what, in no uncertain terms, was a rebuilding Tide team. Despite that, it took two freakish plays and a rash of injuries to key personnel for Auburn to escape with a 1-point victory. Not taking anything away from Auburn: they earned the win, they deserved to win. But they got a lot of help along the way, too.
Don't take this game as an indication that Auburn is on it's way up and Bama is on it's way down. Quite the opposite. This is as high as Auburn is going to be for a long time. And 9-3 is about as low as Bama is going to be for a good, long while, too. And it was a 1-point game. The future is bright for the Tide, and I'm really excited about the 2011 team.
In fact, I'll be back in the coming weeks to review the 2010 season as a whole and figure out what went right, what went wrong, and what it means moving forward, specifically next season (spoiler: it's positive.)
The Final(?) Showdown
So it comes to this, does it?
The final showdown between two rivals, for the time being, and it is for all the Big 12 Marbles. It’s funny to think about in that context, but that is the reality of what we are facing on Saturday when Nebraska plays Oklahoma for a final time. I am not ruling out future meetings, but for all intents and purposes this should be treated as the last game of the rivalry. I am not going to break this down from a technical standpoint, but I am going to try and convey my emotions going into this game, and what I hope will happen.
On June 11th 2010 the Nebraska Cornhuskers were approved to make the jump to the Big 10 Conference and in all the madness that surrounded the move, the one thing that was never brought up was the end of two rivalries. I am not sure many of you can understand what it is like to know you have to make a new rival. It’s weird, I obviously have my intrapersonal rivalry with all my Ohio State supporting friends, I have a personal bitter rivalry with Michigan (1997 should still OUR National Championship), and the prospects of Nebraska/Iowa aka “FARMAGEDDON” The fact that remained was that we as Nebraska fans, lost our two biggest rivals in Colorado and Oklahoma. The Colorado rivalry was more prevalent since the two teams played every year, but to me, Oklahoma would always be the rivalry.
So what about the final game? What about the last game of a rivalry for the time being? I obviously hope Nebraska wins, but more than anything I want to beat our rival one more time on the (second) biggest stage of them all. I am not going to go overboard and want an absolute drubbing, but I do want to win, I want to win this game more than I wanted to win the Texas game, and that was the most hyped I have ever been for a Nebraska game. I don’t think many of you understand how great it would be to win this game; I am aware that many people have national titles, and conference titles, but you always come back the next year to defend and to repeat. This time there is no coming back; there is no repeating as champion, there is just THIS GAME. That’s it. I can’t think of anything that will be sweeter than having to watch Dan Beebe hand the Big 12 Title over to the Cornhuskers, and him knowing that, for the time being, we are the LAST Big 12 Championship Game winners. He already doesn’t want to give the Big 12 North Trophy over to the Huskers, and that’s fine, but he will HAVE to hand over the Big 12 Championship Trophy to Nebraska, and that will be even better. I wouldn’t even care if they won the Fiesta Bowl so long as I get to see that scene in Dallas on Saturday Night, and to take out your two main rivals in back to back weeks? That will be even sweeter. There will be none of me buying Tostitos, or scheduling out songs to play in the event of a win. There will only be a win...
...then we will play the songs, one last time!
Nebraska 20 – Oklahoma 17.
RECRUITING TIME IN SHERMAN!!!!
Things are in full swing as far as recruiting goes for the Roos- we have made a succesful jump from in-season to pre-offseason mode where we are starting to really zero in on kids that we would like to become Austin College Men-
As far as who will be where...
Coach Dawson will be in areas West of Metroplex, and West Texas areas- he will handle all of Arizona all Transfers
Coach Hawsey will be East Texas- Austin- and San Antonio
Coach Willrich will be Ft. Worth, areas south of San Antonio and Oklahoma
Coach Yourison will be the Mid cities- some of Houston- and Florida
Coach Coachman will be in Houston, North Texas, and Arkansas
All coaches will be assigned 4 districts in the Metroplex as well-
As far as who will be where...
Coach Dawson will be in areas West of Metroplex, and West Texas areas- he will handle all of Arizona all Transfers
Coach Hawsey will be East Texas- Austin- and San Antonio
Coach Willrich will be Ft. Worth, areas south of San Antonio and Oklahoma
Coach Yourison will be the Mid cities- some of Houston- and Florida
Coach Coachman will be in Houston, North Texas, and Arkansas
All coaches will be assigned 4 districts in the Metroplex as well-
Rankings through November 27th
With three undefeated teams left, the college football weekend that just concluded either set the table for BCS Championship clarity or chaos, as we await next week's SEC Championship and Oregon versus Oregon State. As has been clear for weeks now, if Auburn and Oregon win out, they'll meet for the Championship. If one of them loses, however, it's time for controversy: should TCU be given a shot at the title? But unless Auburn or Oregon lose next week, that will just be an academic argument (insert joke here about how that should be right up my alley).
Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.
Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.
Iron Bowl 2010: And The Winner Is...
...Auburn.
Sorry, guys.
It'll be close, all of Auburn's games against good teams have been. And being at home, I think we'll see a better effort from the Bama defense than we saw in road losses to South Carolina and LSU. They are clearly a much different unit at home. But despite posting strong scoring defense numbers in Bryant-Denny (only 2 TDs allowed on defense), they have been far from dominant and haven't played any offense as lethal as Auburn's with Cam Newton. And when you watch the tape, all the things Bama does poorly on defense (tackling, playing assingment sound, containing the edge) are exactly the areas that Auburn typically exploits for huge numbers.
If we were talking about the 2009 defense taking the field today, I'd take Bama in a heartbeat. But this year's D just isn't ready yet, and the offense hasn't proved consistent enough to make up the difference.
Auburn 31, Alabama 27
Sorry, guys.
It'll be close, all of Auburn's games against good teams have been. And being at home, I think we'll see a better effort from the Bama defense than we saw in road losses to South Carolina and LSU. They are clearly a much different unit at home. But despite posting strong scoring defense numbers in Bryant-Denny (only 2 TDs allowed on defense), they have been far from dominant and haven't played any offense as lethal as Auburn's with Cam Newton. And when you watch the tape, all the things Bama does poorly on defense (tackling, playing assingment sound, containing the edge) are exactly the areas that Auburn typically exploits for huge numbers.
If we were talking about the 2009 defense taking the field today, I'd take Bama in a heartbeat. But this year's D just isn't ready yet, and the offense hasn't proved consistent enough to make up the difference.
Auburn 31, Alabama 27
10 Roos make 2010 All SCAC!!!!!
Austin College seniors Austin Light, Matt Finke and Greg Harrell headline a list of 10 Kangaroo football players who have been named by the Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference as All-Conference performers, the league office has announced.
Light, Finke and Harrell were each honored as First Team All-SCAC performers, while juniors Ethan Tanner and Kenneth Eneh were named to the All-SCAC Second Team and seniors Evan Coachman, Joshua Willis and Travis Zambiasi along with juniors Braydon MaQuar and Tanner Martin were selected as Honorable Mention All-SCAC performers.
Light, an offensive lineman from Collinsville, was selected as one of the top tackles in the conference after helping the ’Roos average better than 142 rushing yards and 336 total yards of offense per game this season. The offensive line allowed the fourth fewest sacks in the conference this year.
Finke, a defensive back from Denison, had a SCAC-leading five interceptions and averaged a staggering 35.4 yards per return with two touchdowns including a long of 76 yards. Finke also finished with 33 tackles on the season.
Harrell, a tight end from Plano, was third in the conference with 53 receptions and second in receiving yards with 794, adding five touchdowns in nine games this season.
Linebackers Eneh and Tanner, from Flower Mound and Rockwall, respectively, each finished near the top of the SCAC in tackles this season. Eneh was fifth with 84 stops, including 7.5 for loss, and Tanner finished 10th with 72 tackles, including 7.0 for loss. Eneh also forced three fumbles, recovered two and had two interceptions while Tanner had 2.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.
Coachman, a safety from Frisco, was fifth on the team with 58 tackles and added a pair of interceptions this season. Willis, a safety from Harrison, Arkansas, was second on the team with 81 tackles, including 3.5 for loss. Zambiasi, a quarterback from Gunter, was third in the SCAC in pass efficiency and threw for 1,264 yards with 10 touchdowns against just four picks and added 391 yards and a score on the ground.
MaQuar, a runningback from Forney, rushed for 231 yards and four touchdowns and also finished among the SCAC leaders with 44 receptions for 423 yards and four touchdowns. Martin, a linebacker from Paris, was ninth in the SCAC with 74 tackles, including 2.5 for loss.
Austin College athletic teams participate as a member of the NCAA Division III and the Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference.
Written by Jeff Kelly
Light, Finke and Harrell were each honored as First Team All-SCAC performers, while juniors Ethan Tanner and Kenneth Eneh were named to the All-SCAC Second Team and seniors Evan Coachman, Joshua Willis and Travis Zambiasi along with juniors Braydon MaQuar and Tanner Martin were selected as Honorable Mention All-SCAC performers.
Light, an offensive lineman from Collinsville, was selected as one of the top tackles in the conference after helping the ’Roos average better than 142 rushing yards and 336 total yards of offense per game this season. The offensive line allowed the fourth fewest sacks in the conference this year.
Finke, a defensive back from Denison, had a SCAC-leading five interceptions and averaged a staggering 35.4 yards per return with two touchdowns including a long of 76 yards. Finke also finished with 33 tackles on the season.
Harrell, a tight end from Plano, was third in the conference with 53 receptions and second in receiving yards with 794, adding five touchdowns in nine games this season.
Linebackers Eneh and Tanner, from Flower Mound and Rockwall, respectively, each finished near the top of the SCAC in tackles this season. Eneh was fifth with 84 stops, including 7.5 for loss, and Tanner finished 10th with 72 tackles, including 7.0 for loss. Eneh also forced three fumbles, recovered two and had two interceptions while Tanner had 2.5 sacks and two forced fumbles.
Coachman, a safety from Frisco, was fifth on the team with 58 tackles and added a pair of interceptions this season. Willis, a safety from Harrison, Arkansas, was second on the team with 81 tackles, including 3.5 for loss. Zambiasi, a quarterback from Gunter, was third in the SCAC in pass efficiency and threw for 1,264 yards with 10 touchdowns against just four picks and added 391 yards and a score on the ground.
MaQuar, a runningback from Forney, rushed for 231 yards and four touchdowns and also finished among the SCAC leaders with 44 receptions for 423 yards and four touchdowns. Martin, a linebacker from Paris, was ninth in the SCAC with 74 tackles, including 2.5 for loss.
Austin College athletic teams participate as a member of the NCAA Division III and the Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference.
Written by Jeff Kelly
Iron Bowl 2010: Unsolicited Advice for the Crimson Tide OFFENSE
Part two of our look ahead to the Iron Bowl will be considerably shorter than yesterday's installment focused on the offense. As potent as the Auburn offense has been, their defense has been almost equally as inept. The Tigers currently rank #50 in the nation in total defense and a dumbfounding #100 in pass defense. They do boast respectable numbers against the run (#11), but those stats are a little skewed due to the secondary being easy picking and many of Auburn's games turning into shootouts.
Much like the offense, the Auburn D is powered by one spectacular player, defensive tackle Nick Fairley. If something good happens for their defense, Fairley is usually the catalyst. His combination of power, quickness, and technique has generated 7.5 sacks, and he currently sits in the top 10 in tackles for a loss (18). I wasn't able to find a metric for the number of times he's blown up a play without getting tackle credit, but, trust me, it's happened a ton. (Again, I'm resisting the urge to make snide remarks about his penchant for putting questionable hits on the QB. 'Cause I'm classy like that. But, for real, he's dirty.) Most of Bama's focus in this game will have to be on reducing his impact. If they can keep him from busting up plays from the snap, the Tide should be successful attacking this D.
So here's some thoughts on how they might go about all that...
The interior Offensive Line needs to man up. On the offensive side of things, this has been my biggest disappointment of the year. The OL has unexpectedly lost the ability to dominate a game the way the 08 and 09 units did, and it's short-circuited what was supposed to be the strength of this year's offense: the two-head monster of Ingram and Richardson. Part of their struggles could be attributed to injuries (as of this writing, it's still unclear if All-SEC guard Barrett Jones will play on Friday), and part of it could be the result of all these teams with bye weeks coming up with special schemes to stop the run...But, if anything, the 2010 Tide offense is FAR less one-dimensional than the 09 squad and especially the 08 offense. Yet those lines rarely failed to assert their control over loaded boxes. These guys have just lost that will to dominate. I don't know if they don't have the right mix of guys or what, but there's really no excuse for how badly they were whipped by Drake Nevis at LSU. They even let GEORGIA STATE win the battle inside at the goalline and forced Ingram to run wide to score last week. That's embarrassing. And wouldn't you know it...the weakness of this offense is going to be matched up against the best Auburn has to offer in Fairley. If this OL can't find it within themselves to muster one solid 2009-caliber effort, it's going to be a "Honk if you sacked McElroy" kind of game. If they do, well, then you've got a ball game.
Jim McElwain is going to have to call another 09 SEC Championship Game. With the deficiencies at the point of attack duly noted, it's going to take another gem from McElwain if Bama is going to be successful. He's going to have to keep Auburn guessing all day like he kept the Gators guessing last season. This can't be a game where they run Ingram up the middle into the teeth of the defense for a quarter or two, and do nothing, before deciding to cut it loose. It didn't work against LSU, it didn't even work in the early going against Mississippi State. And if they go that route against Auburn, Bama is going to find themselves in a hole, playing catch up. A losing proposition, for sure. The offense must come out guns blazing. I mean, if this is the only game left that means something, then call it that way. Cut it loose. I actually liked some of the wrinkles McElwain threw into the Mississippi State game to blow it open (lining up Ingram out wide and throwing a screen to him, giving it to Julio on a speed sweep). MORE OF THAT. And if you're going to run Ingram, do it to the OUTSIDE. Hit them with those toss sweeps and counters. Keep the play away from Fairley and let those struggling interior linemen flatten linebackers and defensive backs on the edges.
Get the ball in Julio's hands. Look, guys...I understand how much you love Ingram. He had a legendary year in 09, and minus any lingering issues from the knee injury, he's probably an even better player now. I love him, too. But the offensive line has failed him. He's a square peg (literally, have you looked at him?) and they've become a round hole. It's just not happening. This is Julio's year. GIVE HIM THE BALL. The coaching staff has been fighting it all season, but it's been clear over the second half of the schedule that Julio is playing the best football of his career and is by far the best player right now. He caught 7 balls for 100+ yards AFTER he broke his hand against South Carolina. He beat a future Top 10 Draft pick to the point of it being a no-contest against LSU. This offense HAS to get him the ball more often, especially in this game. There is no one in Auburn's secondary that's a match for him. He's ready to dominate these guys. If the coaching staff can engineer at least 15 opportunities for him to get the ball in his hands, in the air or on the ground, starting early in the game, I think Bama is going to be in great shape to win it. It may cut into Mark's carries, but he'll have to understand. And they're buddies, so they can hash it out over a fishing trip or something.
And that's basically all. It's a seemingly simple task: minimize Fairley's impact. If Bama can do that, and then unleash Julio, they should have no trouble scoring enough points to win the game.
But will they?
I still have another 40 hours or so to figure that out. Be back with The Pick some time between now and then...
Much like the offense, the Auburn D is powered by one spectacular player, defensive tackle Nick Fairley. If something good happens for their defense, Fairley is usually the catalyst. His combination of power, quickness, and technique has generated 7.5 sacks, and he currently sits in the top 10 in tackles for a loss (18). I wasn't able to find a metric for the number of times he's blown up a play without getting tackle credit, but, trust me, it's happened a ton. (Again, I'm resisting the urge to make snide remarks about his penchant for putting questionable hits on the QB. 'Cause I'm classy like that. But, for real, he's dirty.) Most of Bama's focus in this game will have to be on reducing his impact. If they can keep him from busting up plays from the snap, the Tide should be successful attacking this D.
So here's some thoughts on how they might go about all that...
The interior Offensive Line needs to man up. On the offensive side of things, this has been my biggest disappointment of the year. The OL has unexpectedly lost the ability to dominate a game the way the 08 and 09 units did, and it's short-circuited what was supposed to be the strength of this year's offense: the two-head monster of Ingram and Richardson. Part of their struggles could be attributed to injuries (as of this writing, it's still unclear if All-SEC guard Barrett Jones will play on Friday), and part of it could be the result of all these teams with bye weeks coming up with special schemes to stop the run...But, if anything, the 2010 Tide offense is FAR less one-dimensional than the 09 squad and especially the 08 offense. Yet those lines rarely failed to assert their control over loaded boxes. These guys have just lost that will to dominate. I don't know if they don't have the right mix of guys or what, but there's really no excuse for how badly they were whipped by Drake Nevis at LSU. They even let GEORGIA STATE win the battle inside at the goalline and forced Ingram to run wide to score last week. That's embarrassing. And wouldn't you know it...the weakness of this offense is going to be matched up against the best Auburn has to offer in Fairley. If this OL can't find it within themselves to muster one solid 2009-caliber effort, it's going to be a "Honk if you sacked McElroy" kind of game. If they do, well, then you've got a ball game.
Jim McElwain is going to have to call another 09 SEC Championship Game. With the deficiencies at the point of attack duly noted, it's going to take another gem from McElwain if Bama is going to be successful. He's going to have to keep Auburn guessing all day like he kept the Gators guessing last season. This can't be a game where they run Ingram up the middle into the teeth of the defense for a quarter or two, and do nothing, before deciding to cut it loose. It didn't work against LSU, it didn't even work in the early going against Mississippi State. And if they go that route against Auburn, Bama is going to find themselves in a hole, playing catch up. A losing proposition, for sure. The offense must come out guns blazing. I mean, if this is the only game left that means something, then call it that way. Cut it loose. I actually liked some of the wrinkles McElwain threw into the Mississippi State game to blow it open (lining up Ingram out wide and throwing a screen to him, giving it to Julio on a speed sweep). MORE OF THAT. And if you're going to run Ingram, do it to the OUTSIDE. Hit them with those toss sweeps and counters. Keep the play away from Fairley and let those struggling interior linemen flatten linebackers and defensive backs on the edges.
Get the ball in Julio's hands. Look, guys...I understand how much you love Ingram. He had a legendary year in 09, and minus any lingering issues from the knee injury, he's probably an even better player now. I love him, too. But the offensive line has failed him. He's a square peg (literally, have you looked at him?) and they've become a round hole. It's just not happening. This is Julio's year. GIVE HIM THE BALL. The coaching staff has been fighting it all season, but it's been clear over the second half of the schedule that Julio is playing the best football of his career and is by far the best player right now. He caught 7 balls for 100+ yards AFTER he broke his hand against South Carolina. He beat a future Top 10 Draft pick to the point of it being a no-contest against LSU. This offense HAS to get him the ball more often, especially in this game. There is no one in Auburn's secondary that's a match for him. He's ready to dominate these guys. If the coaching staff can engineer at least 15 opportunities for him to get the ball in his hands, in the air or on the ground, starting early in the game, I think Bama is going to be in great shape to win it. It may cut into Mark's carries, but he'll have to understand. And they're buddies, so they can hash it out over a fishing trip or something.
And that's basically all. It's a seemingly simple task: minimize Fairley's impact. If Bama can do that, and then unleash Julio, they should have no trouble scoring enough points to win the game.
But will they?
I still have another 40 hours or so to figure that out. Be back with The Pick some time between now and then...
CFBZ Top 25
| W-L | This Week | PR | ||||
| 1 | Auburn | 11-0 | at #9 Alabama (9-2) | 1 | ||
| 2 | Oregon | 10-0 | #20 Arizona (7-3) | 2 | ||
| 3 | Boise State | 10-0 | at #19 Nevada (10-1) | 3 | ||
| 4 | TCU | 11-0 | at New Mexico (1-10) | 4 | ||
| 5 | Wisconsin | 10-1 | Northwestern (7-4) | 6 | ||
| 6 | LSU | 10-1 | at #11 Arkansas (9-2) | 5 | ||
| 7 | Stanford | 10-1 | Oregon State (5-5) | 9 | ||
| 8 | Ohio State | 10-1 | Michigan (7-4) | 7 | ||
| 9 | Alabama | 9-2 | #1 Auburn (11-0) | 10 | ||
| 10 | Michigan State | 10-1 | at Penn State (7-4) | 11 | ||
| 11 | Arkansas | 9-2 | #6 LSU (10-1) | 12 | ||
| 12 | Oklahoma St | 10-1 | #14 Oklahoma (9-2) | 13 | ||
| 13 | Virginia Tech | 9-2 | Virginia (4-7) | 14 | ||
| 14 | Oklahoma | 9-2 | at #12 Oklahoma St (10-1) | 15 | ||
| 15 | South Carolina | 8-3 | at Clemson (6-5) | 17 | ||
| 16 | Missouri | 9-2 | Kansas (3-8) | 16 | ||
| 17 | Texas A&M | 8-3 | at Texas (5-6) | 22 | ||
| 18 | Nebraska | 9-2 | Colorado (5-6) | 8 | ||
| 19 | Nevada | 10-1 | #3 Boise State (10-0) | 18 | ||
| 20 | Arizona | 7-3 | at #2 Oregon (10-0) | 23 | ||
| 21 | FSU | 8-3 | Florida (7-4) | - | ||
| 22 | NC State | 8-3 | at Maryland (7-4) | 25 | ||
| 23 | Miss State | 7-4 | at Ole Miss (4-7) | 21 | ||
| 24 | USC | 7-4 | Notre Dame (6-5) | 19 | ||
| 25T | Iowa | 7-4 | at Minnesota (2-9) | 20 | ||
| 25T | Utah | 9-2 | BYU (6-5) | - | ||
| Dropped Out: Northwestern | ||||||
| Also Receiving Votes: UCF, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio | ||||||
Iron Bowl 2010: Unsolicited Advice for the Crimson Tide DEFENSE
Okay, it's Iron Bowl week, so I'm GOING BIG. My plan is to do not one but two editions of Unsolicited Advice for this game, one dedicated to the Tide defense, the other to the offense. There's a lot more intrigue surrounding how the Tide will stop Cam Newton and the potent Auburn offense than how Julio Jones and company will carve up the Tiger defense, so I figured I'd start there.
I'm not going to preface my advice with a big to-do about how great Cam Newton is. What's left to be said at this point? If you want more fawning over him, go read an Auburn blog or something. Not that I'm denying his greatness...because I'm not. He just doesn't need anymore hype from me. I think everyone for Bama is well aware of what the challenge is here. (And if it makes any Auburn fans feel better, I'm resolving to avoid snide remarks about his eligibility. FAIR AND BALANCED.)
So let's talk about that challenge. What's the #1 thing the Tide defense is going to have to do to slow down the Auburn defense*?
Force Auburn into 3rd and long situations. Now, I know you might say, "That's the key to slowing down any offense," and you'd be right. But it's especially true for Auburn because so much of their offense is centered around the run or the threat of the run. If you can put them in, say, a 3rd and 7, the Tigers have to chunk a huge portion of their playbook and ask Newton to do some things that he's not extremely good at doing. If the game can be boiled down to Newton passing the ball against a confounding Nick Saban nickel scheme, you have to like Nick Saban's odds to win that match more often than not.
However, as 11 teams have already learned, getting Auburn to 3rd and long ain't easy. And if you can get them in that situation, there's still no guarantee Newton won't turn a pass play into a 50 yard run. So how can the Tide do what no one else has? I HAVE SOME THOUGHTS...
Finish tackles at and behind the line of scrimmage. I think this has really been the bane of the Bama defense all year, even moreso than the young DBs struggling in coverage. You expect that. You don't expect a Nick Saban defense to whiff on as many tackles as this year's has. It might be an understatement to say that there have been dozens upon dozens of instances where a Tide defender or multiple defenders have had a play stopped for no gain or a loss only to fail to complete the tackle and let it go for a gain (often a substantial one). That can NOT happen against Auburn. Their spread scheme creates wide open spaces on the field. One missed tackle at or behind the line opens up a world of possibilities for a guy like Cam Newton. In fact, that's how he's made a lot of his hay this season. But it's not just him you have to worry about. Onterrio McCalebb is a homerun threat in the open field, and Michael Dyer will hurt you if he gets to the second level of your defense. Auburn is going to be enough of a problem for the Tide defense without giving them "bonus yards" on second chances when you've go the play sniffed out. Finishing those plays will be key to getting Auburn into the obvious 3rd down passing situations Bama needs to create if they're going to get Newton off the field.
Defensive linemen must keep Newton in front of them. Another way Newton has preyed on opposing defenses is by taking advantage of overeager defensive ends that rush past him upfield, creating huge running lanes to the outside. The key for Bama's DL will be to never get deeper than Newton and always keep him in their sights. To borrow an overused phrase, "Don't try to be a hero." Every week I see ends who think they're going to throw their best Dwight Freeney on the OL and be the guy who blows up Newton in the pocket, and every week, they fail. You may get him once doing that, but more often than not, he's going to take the escape route you just created and hit a big gain. The ends and rushing linebackers just need to focus on holding the edge and providing a solid contain, and simply let the interior linemen push the pocket into Newton's face and funnel him towards their waiting arms, as opposed to chasing him around the field like wildmen in a race they will surely lose. This is another way the Tide defense can limit Newton's ability to create "bonus yards" if coverage is doing it's job downfield. You may not be generating sacks, but a throwaway incompletion is a win. And is especially preferable over a 6, 15, 30, or 75 yard run by the quarterback.
Defensive backs must offer consistent run support and contain the edges. This has really irked me this year, but maybe I just got spoiled by bulldogs like Javier Arenas and Kareem Jackson the past couple of seasons. The DBs have been some of the worst offenders when it comes to whiffing on tackles around the line of scrimmage, and they've been especially bad at knowing where they are in the play and what their role is in run support, specifically as it pertains to backside contain. Dre Kirkpatrick gets caught up in the trash and let's a run get outside him at least once a game. Robert Lester, for all his ballhawking skills, is a terribly inconsistent tackler. DeQuan Menzie does a lousy job getting off or around blocks at the Star position, at least by comparison to the standard Arenas set. Even the great Mark Barron has been guilty of overpursuing plays and losing track of his assignment this year. The only guy who seems to have gotten better as the season has gone on is DeMarcus Milliner, but is he mentally ready for the Auburn offensive scheme? Nobody attacks the edges quite as well as the Tigers have this year. Whether it's the 3 or 4 reverses they run every game, the fly sweeps and tosses to the deadly McCalebb, or just good ol' Newton busting out into the open field, they put your perimeter run defense to the test with regularity. If you can't contain it, you're done. They'll gash you all day. To win this game, this secondary must play far above the standard they've set thus far this season.
Defend the middle of the field in the passing game. Auburn doesn't do a lot in the passing game, partly because they don't have to, partly because, despite his gaudy passing efficiency rating, Newton is still not a very accomplished passer. He has a strong arm, but his accuracy is sketchy and his ability to make reads in a progression is unproven. I think Auburn OC Gus Malzahn has done a great job tailoring this offense around what Newton does well. But when you pay attention to the rare times Newton drops back to throw, he's throwing the same routes over and over again: 10 yard hitch on the sideline, 10 yard drag across the middle (usually to Darvin Adams), all the screen passes, the little crossing routes, the occasional deep throw. It's fairly rudimentary stuff that's easy to defend if you can get Auburn into obvious passing situations when you know it's coming (that being the afformentioned hard part). All that said, I've noticed one play in particular that has developed into what I'd call their "dagger" play in the passing game. (For my purposes, a dagger play is one you're ruthlessly effective at running and that is equally demoralizing to the defense.) It's a play action pass where they fake the read option then Newton pulls up and throws a middle seam route to either the tight end Phillip Lutzenkirchen or slot receiver Emory Blake. They started running this more in the second half of the season, and they really like running it inside the 20 to get in the endzone. It plays to Newton's strengths because the run action creates some open spaces down field and allows him to simply power a throw through a large window off one read. And it really works on a defense's psyche because everyone focuses so much on that option, so when the tight end turns up in the endzone with the ball in his hands, it makes you question everything you're doing from that point forward. Bama MUST take that throw away from Newton (along with that 1o yard drag) and make him beat them to the outside where his mostly unrefined passing skills can present opportunities for the secondary to make plays on the ball.
And they can expect to see that middle seam to the tight end early, and perhaps often. Go watch tape of some of Bama's recent games. Ole Miss ran a similar play, but the TE dropped it off his hip with open field in front of him. LSU ran the exact same play as Ole Miss and completed it for a long gain. So did Mississippi State. So did GEORGIA STATE. I promise you Malzahn has seen the tape. If the Tide hasn't figured out how to stop that yet, they're going to lose. And by this point, maybe they would deserve to.
*"Slow down" is the operative term here. Even if the Bama defense shows up and tackles better than they have all season, covers better than they have all season, and makes fewer mental mistakes than they have all season, there is still going to be no "shutting down" this offense. Newton is going to get his yards. You have to be prepared to accept that. Even LSU (currently ranked #5 in total defense) gave up 500 yards to Auburn. In fact they were outgained by almost 300 yards in that game. But what was the final score? 24-17. Despite Newton and Auburn more than doubling them up in yardage, LSU slowed them down enough in key situations to be IN that game till the end. And if they had discovered an offense by that point in the season, they probably would have won it.
That's all Bama's D has to do. Just slow them down enough to let the offense win it.
I'll be back tomorow to talk about how they'll do that.
I'm not going to preface my advice with a big to-do about how great Cam Newton is. What's left to be said at this point? If you want more fawning over him, go read an Auburn blog or something. Not that I'm denying his greatness...because I'm not. He just doesn't need anymore hype from me. I think everyone for Bama is well aware of what the challenge is here. (And if it makes any Auburn fans feel better, I'm resolving to avoid snide remarks about his eligibility. FAIR AND BALANCED.)
So let's talk about that challenge. What's the #1 thing the Tide defense is going to have to do to slow down the Auburn defense*?
Force Auburn into 3rd and long situations. Now, I know you might say, "That's the key to slowing down any offense," and you'd be right. But it's especially true for Auburn because so much of their offense is centered around the run or the threat of the run. If you can put them in, say, a 3rd and 7, the Tigers have to chunk a huge portion of their playbook and ask Newton to do some things that he's not extremely good at doing. If the game can be boiled down to Newton passing the ball against a confounding Nick Saban nickel scheme, you have to like Nick Saban's odds to win that match more often than not.
However, as 11 teams have already learned, getting Auburn to 3rd and long ain't easy. And if you can get them in that situation, there's still no guarantee Newton won't turn a pass play into a 50 yard run. So how can the Tide do what no one else has? I HAVE SOME THOUGHTS...
Finish tackles at and behind the line of scrimmage. I think this has really been the bane of the Bama defense all year, even moreso than the young DBs struggling in coverage. You expect that. You don't expect a Nick Saban defense to whiff on as many tackles as this year's has. It might be an understatement to say that there have been dozens upon dozens of instances where a Tide defender or multiple defenders have had a play stopped for no gain or a loss only to fail to complete the tackle and let it go for a gain (often a substantial one). That can NOT happen against Auburn. Their spread scheme creates wide open spaces on the field. One missed tackle at or behind the line opens up a world of possibilities for a guy like Cam Newton. In fact, that's how he's made a lot of his hay this season. But it's not just him you have to worry about. Onterrio McCalebb is a homerun threat in the open field, and Michael Dyer will hurt you if he gets to the second level of your defense. Auburn is going to be enough of a problem for the Tide defense without giving them "bonus yards" on second chances when you've go the play sniffed out. Finishing those plays will be key to getting Auburn into the obvious 3rd down passing situations Bama needs to create if they're going to get Newton off the field.
Defensive linemen must keep Newton in front of them. Another way Newton has preyed on opposing defenses is by taking advantage of overeager defensive ends that rush past him upfield, creating huge running lanes to the outside. The key for Bama's DL will be to never get deeper than Newton and always keep him in their sights. To borrow an overused phrase, "Don't try to be a hero." Every week I see ends who think they're going to throw their best Dwight Freeney on the OL and be the guy who blows up Newton in the pocket, and every week, they fail. You may get him once doing that, but more often than not, he's going to take the escape route you just created and hit a big gain. The ends and rushing linebackers just need to focus on holding the edge and providing a solid contain, and simply let the interior linemen push the pocket into Newton's face and funnel him towards their waiting arms, as opposed to chasing him around the field like wildmen in a race they will surely lose. This is another way the Tide defense can limit Newton's ability to create "bonus yards" if coverage is doing it's job downfield. You may not be generating sacks, but a throwaway incompletion is a win. And is especially preferable over a 6, 15, 30, or 75 yard run by the quarterback.
Defensive backs must offer consistent run support and contain the edges. This has really irked me this year, but maybe I just got spoiled by bulldogs like Javier Arenas and Kareem Jackson the past couple of seasons. The DBs have been some of the worst offenders when it comes to whiffing on tackles around the line of scrimmage, and they've been especially bad at knowing where they are in the play and what their role is in run support, specifically as it pertains to backside contain. Dre Kirkpatrick gets caught up in the trash and let's a run get outside him at least once a game. Robert Lester, for all his ballhawking skills, is a terribly inconsistent tackler. DeQuan Menzie does a lousy job getting off or around blocks at the Star position, at least by comparison to the standard Arenas set. Even the great Mark Barron has been guilty of overpursuing plays and losing track of his assignment this year. The only guy who seems to have gotten better as the season has gone on is DeMarcus Milliner, but is he mentally ready for the Auburn offensive scheme? Nobody attacks the edges quite as well as the Tigers have this year. Whether it's the 3 or 4 reverses they run every game, the fly sweeps and tosses to the deadly McCalebb, or just good ol' Newton busting out into the open field, they put your perimeter run defense to the test with regularity. If you can't contain it, you're done. They'll gash you all day. To win this game, this secondary must play far above the standard they've set thus far this season.
Defend the middle of the field in the passing game. Auburn doesn't do a lot in the passing game, partly because they don't have to, partly because, despite his gaudy passing efficiency rating, Newton is still not a very accomplished passer. He has a strong arm, but his accuracy is sketchy and his ability to make reads in a progression is unproven. I think Auburn OC Gus Malzahn has done a great job tailoring this offense around what Newton does well. But when you pay attention to the rare times Newton drops back to throw, he's throwing the same routes over and over again: 10 yard hitch on the sideline, 10 yard drag across the middle (usually to Darvin Adams), all the screen passes, the little crossing routes, the occasional deep throw. It's fairly rudimentary stuff that's easy to defend if you can get Auburn into obvious passing situations when you know it's coming (that being the afformentioned hard part). All that said, I've noticed one play in particular that has developed into what I'd call their "dagger" play in the passing game. (For my purposes, a dagger play is one you're ruthlessly effective at running and that is equally demoralizing to the defense.) It's a play action pass where they fake the read option then Newton pulls up and throws a middle seam route to either the tight end Phillip Lutzenkirchen or slot receiver Emory Blake. They started running this more in the second half of the season, and they really like running it inside the 20 to get in the endzone. It plays to Newton's strengths because the run action creates some open spaces down field and allows him to simply power a throw through a large window off one read. And it really works on a defense's psyche because everyone focuses so much on that option, so when the tight end turns up in the endzone with the ball in his hands, it makes you question everything you're doing from that point forward. Bama MUST take that throw away from Newton (along with that 1o yard drag) and make him beat them to the outside where his mostly unrefined passing skills can present opportunities for the secondary to make plays on the ball.
And they can expect to see that middle seam to the tight end early, and perhaps often. Go watch tape of some of Bama's recent games. Ole Miss ran a similar play, but the TE dropped it off his hip with open field in front of him. LSU ran the exact same play as Ole Miss and completed it for a long gain. So did Mississippi State. So did GEORGIA STATE. I promise you Malzahn has seen the tape. If the Tide hasn't figured out how to stop that yet, they're going to lose. And by this point, maybe they would deserve to.
*"Slow down" is the operative term here. Even if the Bama defense shows up and tackles better than they have all season, covers better than they have all season, and makes fewer mental mistakes than they have all season, there is still going to be no "shutting down" this offense. Newton is going to get his yards. You have to be prepared to accept that. Even LSU (currently ranked #5 in total defense) gave up 500 yards to Auburn. In fact they were outgained by almost 300 yards in that game. But what was the final score? 24-17. Despite Newton and Auburn more than doubling them up in yardage, LSU slowed them down enough in key situations to be IN that game till the end. And if they had discovered an offense by that point in the season, they probably would have won it.
That's all Bama's D has to do. Just slow them down enough to let the offense win it.
I'll be back tomorow to talk about how they'll do that.
Reading Time!!!
Recently a couple of our boys were able to get out to Sory Elementary, a local elementary school west of town and spend some time with the students there. It is always nice when our kids can get away from football and go out into the community. Check out some pics!!!
We are not sure who liked it more, the young students....
or our old 2nd graders!!!!
We are not sure who liked it more, the young students....
or our old 2nd graders!!!!
3 Roos to Compete in Senior Classic Bowl
Matt Finke Austin Light Austin Sherman
3 Kangaroos will follow in former Kangaroo great Ross Hasten's footsteps as Matt Finke, Austin Sherman, and Austin Light have all commited to participate in the D3 Senior classic in Salem, Virginia on December 3rd. Were so proud of our Austin College Men!!!!
Please wish them well for not only a great trip, but for a great next couple of years as they all three go out and represent Austin College Football in the real world!!!
You've done us proud boys!!!
You've done us proud boys!!!
Toulouse - What would my mama say
Despite persistent efforts my digging has been fruitless the past months and I have no new swedish heat to share. To keep this blog alive im gonna post some tunes that get alot of spins in my house currently. First out is this semi cheesy but cool 12" with obsolete lyrics.
Rankings through November 20th
With the top four teams in the BCS all off for the weekend, one doesn't expect much of a change at the top of the rankings. With most of the other highly-ranked teams winning, except Nebraska (previously BCS#8), there seems even less reason for change in algorithmic rankings. Yes, the debate continues about the relative rankings of the other one-loss teams, but the computer rankings used by the BCS don't factor in margin of victory (neither do we here).
So it is something of a surprise that the top of the plot below is so different from last week's figure. Obviously, we expect Nebraska to fall with a loss; but LSU used to be ahead of both TCU and Boise State for a wide range of "p values" (our bias parameter which influences the importance of strength of schedule and which serves as a very rough proxy for some different ranking systems). That range where the strength of schedule of LSU, Stanford, and Missouri is enough here to put them ahead of Boise State has now narrowed in the left edge of the figure. This is presumably in part because each of them beat teams with incoming records at .500 and below in conference this weekend; but I also suspect a variety of indirect effects in the developing network of wins and losses between teams.
Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.
So it is something of a surprise that the top of the plot below is so different from last week's figure. Obviously, we expect Nebraska to fall with a loss; but LSU used to be ahead of both TCU and Boise State for a wide range of "p values" (our bias parameter which influences the importance of strength of schedule and which serves as a very rough proxy for some different ranking systems). That range where the strength of schedule of LSU, Stanford, and Missouri is enough here to put them ahead of Boise State has now narrowed in the left edge of the figure. This is presumably in part because each of them beat teams with incoming records at .500 and below in conference this weekend; but I also suspect a variety of indirect effects in the developing network of wins and losses between teams.
Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.
CFBZ Top 25
| W-L | This Week | PR | ||||
| 1 | Auburn | 11-0 | BYE | 1 | ||
| 2 | Oregon | 10-0 | BYE | 2 | ||
| 3 | Boise State | 9-0 | Fresno State (6-3) | 4 | ||
| 4 | TCU | 11-0 | BYE | 3 | ||
| 5 | LSU | 9-1 | Ole Miss (4-6) | 5 | ||
| 6 | Wisconsin | 9-1 | at Michigan (7-3) | 6 | ||
| 7 | Ohio State | 9-1 | at #20 Iowa (7-3) | 8 | ||
| 8 | Nebraska | 9-1 | at #22 Texas A&M (7-3) | 7 | ||
| 9 | Stanford | 9-1 | at Cal (5-5) | 9 | ||
| 10 | Alabama | 9-2 | Beat Georgia State 63 to 7 | 11 | ||
| 11 | Mich State | 9-1 | Purdue (4-6) | 10 | ||
| 12 | Arkansas | 8-2 | at #21 Miss State (7-3) | 13 | ||
| 13 | Oklahoma St | 9-1 | at Kansas (3-7) | 14 | ||
| 14 | Virginia Tech | 8-2 | at Miami FL (7-3) | 15 | ||
| 15 | Oklahoma | 8-2 | at Baylor (7-4) | 16 | ||
| 16 | Missouri | 8-2 | at Iowa St (5-6) | 20 | ||
| 17 | South Carolina | 7-3 | Troy (5-4) | 23 | ||
| 18 | Nevada | 9-1 | New Mexico St (2-8) | 22 | ||
| 19 | USC | 7-3 | at Oregon St (4-5) | 24 | ||
| 20 | Iowa | 7-3 | #7 Ohio State (7-3) | 12 | ||
| 21 | Miss State | 7-3 | #12 Arkansas (8-2) | 18 | ||
| 22 | Texas A&M | 7-3 | #8 Nebraska (9-1) | - | ||
| 23 | Arizona | 7-3 | BYE | 17 | ||
| 24 | Northwestern | 7-3 | vs Illinois (5-5) | - | ||
| 25 | NC State | 7-3 | at UNC (6-4) | - | ||
| Dropped Out: Utah, Florida, UCF | ||||||
| Also receiving votes: FSU, Northern Illinois, Temple, Utah, Miami FL | ||||||
Hey, There's An Alabama Game Tonight
Were you aware?
I'm not going to waste your time acting like this will be some sort of legitimate athletic contest. This is actually a pretty embarrassing situation with one of the most storied programs in college football history getting ready to beat the daylights out of a start-up program in its first year of play. And for what? A favor to a loser coach we ran off a couple decades ago? I don't get it. Nonetheless, we're going to play the game. Hopefully we'll put it away early without ultimately looking like total Bielemas for running it up against these Georgia State kids and keep everybody important healthy for Auburn next week.
The two things about this game I'm actually interested in?
1. How many people show up. Alabama actually has a pretty strong tradition of putting good crowds in the stands even for these walk-over games. However Bama rarely ever plays games on week nights. The last time the Tide played on a Thursday night during the regular season was against Southern Miss in 2001. The odd scheduling (arranged for the benefit of Bama's prep for Auburn next Friday), coupled with the lack of a strong opponent, could lead to quite a few people staying home. Throw in the general damper 2 losses have put on the general mood lately and you've got a recipe for wide open spaces in the stands tonight.
2. Will Georgia State get in the endzone? Alabama has only allowed 32 points at home this season through 5 games. Opponents have only managed to score 2 TDs in Bryant-Denny Stadium. That would be a pretty impressive stat to carry into the Iron Bowl. It's highly doubtful the Panthers will even get a sniff of the endzone against the 1st defense, but they may have some opportunities once the subs start coming in (maybe as soon as the 2nd quarter). This may be the one thing that keeps even me motivated to watch this game the whole way through.
Be back sometime soon to talk about the one game left that matters for Alabama...
I'm not going to waste your time acting like this will be some sort of legitimate athletic contest. This is actually a pretty embarrassing situation with one of the most storied programs in college football history getting ready to beat the daylights out of a start-up program in its first year of play. And for what? A favor to a loser coach we ran off a couple decades ago? I don't get it. Nonetheless, we're going to play the game. Hopefully we'll put it away early without ultimately looking like total Bielemas for running it up against these Georgia State kids and keep everybody important healthy for Auburn next week.
The two things about this game I'm actually interested in?
1. How many people show up. Alabama actually has a pretty strong tradition of putting good crowds in the stands even for these walk-over games. However Bama rarely ever plays games on week nights. The last time the Tide played on a Thursday night during the regular season was against Southern Miss in 2001. The odd scheduling (arranged for the benefit of Bama's prep for Auburn next Friday), coupled with the lack of a strong opponent, could lead to quite a few people staying home. Throw in the general damper 2 losses have put on the general mood lately and you've got a recipe for wide open spaces in the stands tonight.
2. Will Georgia State get in the endzone? Alabama has only allowed 32 points at home this season through 5 games. Opponents have only managed to score 2 TDs in Bryant-Denny Stadium. That would be a pretty impressive stat to carry into the Iron Bowl. It's highly doubtful the Panthers will even get a sniff of the endzone against the 1st defense, but they may have some opportunities once the subs start coming in (maybe as soon as the 2nd quarter). This may be the one thing that keeps even me motivated to watch this game the whole way through.
Be back sometime soon to talk about the one game left that matters for Alabama...
Rankings through November 13th
Before another week went in the books, it briefly seemed not just possible but likely that BCS chaos was upon us, that is, before both Oregon and Auburn prevailed in their respective games. As long as they both keep winning, the national championship picture will remain simple; but we saw again that a stumble is always possible, and both teams have two solid challenges in front of them. As the saying goes, that's why they play the games. If one or both indeed stumble, the "BCS busters" and the one-loss teams will all be there trying to stake their claims on a title shot.
Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.
Our rankings for the full FBS and FCS are available on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ranking Comparison.
Five Questions: Big 12 Edition
What is the biggest surprise in the Big 12 so far?
Alex: By far it is Texas's fall. How many teams go from losing the national championship game to possibly being last in the conference?
J Martin: It has to be Texas' fall. I never bought into the Garrett Gilbert craze, never thought he was going to step in and be an instant superstar after he made a few good throws against Alabama in the BCS title game. I never bought into this idea that Texas was suddenly going to become a pro-style, power running team and not miss a beat on offense despite not having the personnel to do it. And yet I also never thought we'd be here in the 2nd week of November wondering if Texas was even going to make a bowl. That's shocking. With the talent and the coaches that the Longhorns have, they should never, ever, lose 5 games in a year. But here they are, sitting at 4-5, staring down the barrel of two more.
Kevin: Texas is a huge surprise but I think Okie State is just as surprising. In our pre-season preview we picked Okie State DOA and chose them to come in a tie for 5th with Baylor. Phil Steele picked them dead last in the Big 12 South calling it a rebuilding year. ESPN said they would finish in 5th and 7-5.
Ross: The rise of Baylor, the fall of Texas, and the continued (and even greater) success of Oklahoma State have all been pretty remarkable surprises, but I'd have to say the freefall of Texas been the biggest stunner. In hindsight, it wasn't totally crazy to see Baylor and Oklahoma State being good since they each returned an offensive star (RB Kendall Hunter for Okie State, QB Robert Griffin for Baylor), although it would have been nuts to project this much success for them. But Texas slumming it at 4-5 and in real danger of not even making a bowl? That's absurd to even contemplate -- especially after seeing them get so thoroughly and comprehensively beaten by UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State. None of those losses were fluky in the slightest -- Texas just got completely outplayed. For that to happen with a team with such obvious talent (unless the recruiting services were wildly inaccurate) is mind blowing. Barring an unlikely turnaround, this is going to go down as one of the most sudden, surprising, and inexplicable collapses of a major program in recent history.
Who is the Big 12 Player of the Year so far?
Alex: Taylor Martinez is your PotY. Nebraska would be dead in the water amongst Colorado and Kansas had it not been for his surprise appearance at QB this season.
J Martin: Can I give it to 2 guys if they're on the same team? Statistically, it's Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State. He's in the top 2 in receptions per game, receiving yards per game, and scoring. The latter of which he's done despite missing a game due to suspension. He makes big plays and he makes them often. However, I'd also have to give credit to his quarterback Brandon Weeden. Someone has to get Blackmon the ball, right? I think Weeden's emergence as a quality spread quarterback has been the biggest factor in OSU's rise from being declared DOA in most preseason publications to a Top 25 team and possible conference champion.
Kevin: This is a toss up between Kendall Hunter (1240 yds, 6.1 ypc, 14 TD) and his QB Brandon Wheedon (leds the Big 12 in passing yds, yds/attempt, TD, QB rating, etc).
Ross: Baylor QB Robert Griffin III. Without him, Baylor's a 2-3 win team rather than being a legitimate conference title contender. He's leading the conference in total yards (416 yards rushing, 2859 yards passing), has accounted for 27 touchdowns, and he's the unquestioned leader of that team. He's been incredible. Oklahoma State has the league leaders in passing (Brandon Weeden), rushing (Kendall Hunter), and receiving (Justin Blackmon), but their combined excellence works against identifying one of them as the singular best player in the league.
What is the most interesting game left on the Big 12 schedule?
J Martin: There are far too many interesting games left on the Big 12 schedule. Can I cheat and give two answers again? As of today, it's Oklahoma State vs. Texas. That's a huge swing game for Texas' bowl hopes. If they win, they're in. They'll easily top FAU the next week. But if they lose...the Texas vs. Texas A&M showdown on Thanksgiving gets bigger than it's been in years, with the Aggies getting the chance to send Texas home for the holidays. There's nothing more interesting than watching a national power fall on it's face (as I have learned the hard way).
Kevin: I've got Oklahoma/Oklahoma State because this is the game that the Big 12 South should come down to. Plus, it's in Stillwater which should make this very very interesting.
Ross: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. Not only is it the annual "Bedlam" game and a heated rivalry between two top programs that's seen a few upsets in recent years, but it's likely to be the game that decides the Big 12 South race this year. The stakes should be very high for this game, which ought to make it awfully intense. There's also a lot of star power in this game, since you have arguably the Big 12's two best quarterbacks (Weeden and Landry Jones), two best running backs (Hunter and DeMarco Murray), and two best wide receivers (Blackmon and Ryan Broyles). This game has all the makings of a wild shootout between two high-powered, star-laden offenses, which should make for a pretty exciting affair.
Who wins the Big 12 South?
J Martin: I like Oklahoma State. Baylor is having a nice year, but it's hard to take them seriously as a legit title contender. Same with Texas A&M. And after the Sooners' loss to A&M, it's perfectly conceivable that they could slip up against Baylor or Texas Tech and take themselves out of the running before they get to Okie State. Meanwhile, unless Texas can muster another Nebraska-caliber effort this weekend, the Cowboys are playing a one-game season from this point forward. The odds are in their favor.
Kevin: Right now I'm leaning towards Okie State because they have the home-field advantage in the final game. Ask me again next week and the answer could be very different.
Ross: I think Oklahoma State edges Oklahoma on the basis of an easier schedule and home-field advantage in their season-ending clash. Texas is reeling and Kansas is dreadful, which should enable Okie State to get to 6-1. Oklahoma should be able to handle Texas Tech at home, but they've struggled on the road and Baylor will be very tricky. Assuming they get by that game, a season-ending road game against Oklahoma State looks pretty daunting, too. Baylor and Texas A&M are out of the running since Oklahoma State already has head-to-head wins over them and they'd need Okie State to drop TWO more games in their final three -- which doesn't seem likely.
Has Tommy Tuberville's debut season at Texas Tech been a success?
Alex: I say yes as it is hard to gage a coaches success rate over the first season. Texas Tech made a huge mistake when they fired (and not just reprimand) Leech. Tubbs needs his own players for his system and do remember he was on the way out of Auburn before exploding with 2 and 1/2 great seasons. He is holding his own, give him three more years before the axe comes crashing down at a school without any expectations.
J Martin: I think he's mostly succeeded at maintaining the status quo under Mike Leach (win 7-9 games consistently) while avoiding the meltdown that a lot of Tech fans feared when considering Tub's last foray into the spread offense. That was probably the best case scenario for this season.
Kevin: I wouldn't call it a "success" but it's not a failure. Tech should go 2-1 in their last 3 which would put them at 7-5. If he continually posts 7-5 then that's not what Tech wants but if he can build on this season then I think we can look back on it as a success.
Ross: If he can string together three more wins and close out at 8-4, it would be a pretty solid season. Anything less than that would be pretty disappointing. The wins over Baylor and Missouri are nice, but the losses are embarrassing, especially the games against Texas (in light of what they've become) and Iowa State (Tech collapsed in ugly fashion against them). Plus, this was a very vulnerable Big 12 and a favorable schedule for them -- no Nebraska, the worst Texas team in well over a decade, and an Oklahoma team that's good but not great -- so only mustering a 7-5 schedule with that would be pretty lackluster. 8-4 still wouldn't be great, but it would at least be palatable. Still, it's hard to look at this season and think that Mike Leach couldn't have done more -- and possibly led Texas Tech on the breakthrough season that Oklahoma State instead seems to be enjoying.
Alex: By far it is Texas's fall. How many teams go from losing the national championship game to possibly being last in the conference?
J Martin: It has to be Texas' fall. I never bought into the Garrett Gilbert craze, never thought he was going to step in and be an instant superstar after he made a few good throws against Alabama in the BCS title game. I never bought into this idea that Texas was suddenly going to become a pro-style, power running team and not miss a beat on offense despite not having the personnel to do it. And yet I also never thought we'd be here in the 2nd week of November wondering if Texas was even going to make a bowl. That's shocking. With the talent and the coaches that the Longhorns have, they should never, ever, lose 5 games in a year. But here they are, sitting at 4-5, staring down the barrel of two more.
Kevin: Texas is a huge surprise but I think Okie State is just as surprising. In our pre-season preview we picked Okie State DOA and chose them to come in a tie for 5th with Baylor. Phil Steele picked them dead last in the Big 12 South calling it a rebuilding year. ESPN said they would finish in 5th and 7-5.
Ross: The rise of Baylor, the fall of Texas, and the continued (and even greater) success of Oklahoma State have all been pretty remarkable surprises, but I'd have to say the freefall of Texas been the biggest stunner. In hindsight, it wasn't totally crazy to see Baylor and Oklahoma State being good since they each returned an offensive star (RB Kendall Hunter for Okie State, QB Robert Griffin for Baylor), although it would have been nuts to project this much success for them. But Texas slumming it at 4-5 and in real danger of not even making a bowl? That's absurd to even contemplate -- especially after seeing them get so thoroughly and comprehensively beaten by UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State. None of those losses were fluky in the slightest -- Texas just got completely outplayed. For that to happen with a team with such obvious talent (unless the recruiting services were wildly inaccurate) is mind blowing. Barring an unlikely turnaround, this is going to go down as one of the most sudden, surprising, and inexplicable collapses of a major program in recent history.
Who is the Big 12 Player of the Year so far?
Alex: Taylor Martinez is your PotY. Nebraska would be dead in the water amongst Colorado and Kansas had it not been for his surprise appearance at QB this season.
J Martin: Can I give it to 2 guys if they're on the same team? Statistically, it's Justin Blackmon at Oklahoma State. He's in the top 2 in receptions per game, receiving yards per game, and scoring. The latter of which he's done despite missing a game due to suspension. He makes big plays and he makes them often. However, I'd also have to give credit to his quarterback Brandon Weeden. Someone has to get Blackmon the ball, right? I think Weeden's emergence as a quality spread quarterback has been the biggest factor in OSU's rise from being declared DOA in most preseason publications to a Top 25 team and possible conference champion.
Kevin: This is a toss up between Kendall Hunter (1240 yds, 6.1 ypc, 14 TD) and his QB Brandon Wheedon (leds the Big 12 in passing yds, yds/attempt, TD, QB rating, etc).
Ross: Baylor QB Robert Griffin III. Without him, Baylor's a 2-3 win team rather than being a legitimate conference title contender. He's leading the conference in total yards (416 yards rushing, 2859 yards passing), has accounted for 27 touchdowns, and he's the unquestioned leader of that team. He's been incredible. Oklahoma State has the league leaders in passing (Brandon Weeden), rushing (Kendall Hunter), and receiving (Justin Blackmon), but their combined excellence works against identifying one of them as the singular best player in the league.
What is the most interesting game left on the Big 12 schedule?
J Martin: There are far too many interesting games left on the Big 12 schedule. Can I cheat and give two answers again? As of today, it's Oklahoma State vs. Texas. That's a huge swing game for Texas' bowl hopes. If they win, they're in. They'll easily top FAU the next week. But if they lose...the Texas vs. Texas A&M showdown on Thanksgiving gets bigger than it's been in years, with the Aggies getting the chance to send Texas home for the holidays. There's nothing more interesting than watching a national power fall on it's face (as I have learned the hard way).
Kevin: I've got Oklahoma/Oklahoma State because this is the game that the Big 12 South should come down to. Plus, it's in Stillwater which should make this very very interesting.
Ross: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State. Not only is it the annual "Bedlam" game and a heated rivalry between two top programs that's seen a few upsets in recent years, but it's likely to be the game that decides the Big 12 South race this year. The stakes should be very high for this game, which ought to make it awfully intense. There's also a lot of star power in this game, since you have arguably the Big 12's two best quarterbacks (Weeden and Landry Jones), two best running backs (Hunter and DeMarco Murray), and two best wide receivers (Blackmon and Ryan Broyles). This game has all the makings of a wild shootout between two high-powered, star-laden offenses, which should make for a pretty exciting affair.
Who wins the Big 12 South?
J Martin: I like Oklahoma State. Baylor is having a nice year, but it's hard to take them seriously as a legit title contender. Same with Texas A&M. And after the Sooners' loss to A&M, it's perfectly conceivable that they could slip up against Baylor or Texas Tech and take themselves out of the running before they get to Okie State. Meanwhile, unless Texas can muster another Nebraska-caliber effort this weekend, the Cowboys are playing a one-game season from this point forward. The odds are in their favor.
Kevin: Right now I'm leaning towards Okie State because they have the home-field advantage in the final game. Ask me again next week and the answer could be very different.
Ross: I think Oklahoma State edges Oklahoma on the basis of an easier schedule and home-field advantage in their season-ending clash. Texas is reeling and Kansas is dreadful, which should enable Okie State to get to 6-1. Oklahoma should be able to handle Texas Tech at home, but they've struggled on the road and Baylor will be very tricky. Assuming they get by that game, a season-ending road game against Oklahoma State looks pretty daunting, too. Baylor and Texas A&M are out of the running since Oklahoma State already has head-to-head wins over them and they'd need Okie State to drop TWO more games in their final three -- which doesn't seem likely.
Has Tommy Tuberville's debut season at Texas Tech been a success?
Alex: I say yes as it is hard to gage a coaches success rate over the first season. Texas Tech made a huge mistake when they fired (and not just reprimand) Leech. Tubbs needs his own players for his system and do remember he was on the way out of Auburn before exploding with 2 and 1/2 great seasons. He is holding his own, give him three more years before the axe comes crashing down at a school without any expectations.
J Martin: I think he's mostly succeeded at maintaining the status quo under Mike Leach (win 7-9 games consistently) while avoiding the meltdown that a lot of Tech fans feared when considering Tub's last foray into the spread offense. That was probably the best case scenario for this season.
Kevin: I wouldn't call it a "success" but it's not a failure. Tech should go 2-1 in their last 3 which would put them at 7-5. If he continually posts 7-5 then that's not what Tech wants but if he can build on this season then I think we can look back on it as a success.
Ross: If he can string together three more wins and close out at 8-4, it would be a pretty solid season. Anything less than that would be pretty disappointing. The wins over Baylor and Missouri are nice, but the losses are embarrassing, especially the games against Texas (in light of what they've become) and Iowa State (Tech collapsed in ugly fashion against them). Plus, this was a very vulnerable Big 12 and a favorable schedule for them -- no Nebraska, the worst Texas team in well over a decade, and an Oklahoma team that's good but not great -- so only mustering a 7-5 schedule with that would be pretty lackluster. 8-4 still wouldn't be great, but it would at least be palatable. Still, it's hard to look at this season and think that Mike Leach couldn't have done more -- and possibly led Texas Tech on the breakthrough season that Oklahoma State instead seems to be enjoying.
Coaching Carousel 2010: Let the Carousel Spin
Okay, Coaching Carousel is back. Finally. Sorry, I'm busy, easily distracted, and thoroughly despondent over the direction of Alabama's season. In the interim, the countdown has ended and the carousel has begun a-spinnin'. For the time being, we're going to continue to concentrate on BCS conference jobs. So if you're looking for information on that coveted North Texas coaching gig, you'll have to go elsewhere. Let's start by acknowledging those that have gone on to a better place and where their erstwhile teams go from here...
EARLY DEPARTURES
MINNESOTA
OUT: Tim Brewster
2010 Record: 1-6
Record at Minnesota: 15-30 overall, 6-21 conference
Tim Brewster was a prime candidate to get axed coming into this season and did little to help himself through the first month of the season, yet he somehow evaded my first roundup of coaches on the hot seat. Pure negligence on my part. And now he's gone. Brewster had never been so much as a coordinator at the college level, nor a head coach at any level, when Minnesota tabbed him to be their head coach in 2007. Apparently they had grown dissatisfied with Glen Mason's consistent ability to get the Gophers to a bowl game (5 in a row at the time of his ouster, 7 bowls in 10 seasons overall), but not much else, and decided a guy with no experience whatsoever held the key to taking UM to the next level. And it was a disaster. Despite some favorable scheduling allowing the Gophers to sneak into back to back Insight Bowls, it was clear the program was regressing all the while, ultimately bottoming out in this miserable season. Brewster leaves Minnesota never having beaten any of the school's chief rivals and never winning a single one of those 1,001 trophies they have in the Big 10.
Potential Candidates: Everyone from Tony Dungy, Phil Fulmer, and Mike Leach has had their name attached to this job. Obviously none of those guys are realistic candidates. I talked a bit about this already in this week's Big 10 Q&A, so I'll reiterate that the best, and in my opinion most likely, candidates are successful non-BCS head coaches like Kevin Sumlin from Houston and Al Golden from Temple. Sumlin previously spent some time at Minnesota as an assistant. This is not a great job, but it's not a bad one either. They can get a good coach, but they're not going to get the big names (like Jim Harbaugh) or the elite assistants (like Gus Malzahn).
COLORADO
OUT: Dan Hawkins
2010 Record: 3-6
Record at Colorado: 19-39 overall, 10-27 conference
In their last season in the Big 12, the Buffaloes went out with a whimper, and so to did Dan Hawkins. After a hugely disappointing 2009 season, there was little hope for improvement this season, but a lack of financial resources (aka their boosters suck) kept them from turfing Hawkins. The Hawk leaves Boulder having taken the Buffs to just one bowl game (an Independence Bowl loss to Alabama in 2007) and never posting a winning record. His teams were an astounding 2-24 outside the state of Colorado. Basically, his entire tenure at CU was one big public service announcement for the likes of Chris Peterson and Gary Patterson: Be sure you've got the right job before you leave your mid-major utopia. They ain't all Florida.
Potential Candidates: Though they seemingly came up with the cash to send Hawkins packing, there's still no indication that they're in financial shape to make competitive offers for the better candidates looking to hop aboard The Carousel. There's a reason Bill McCartney is a serious contender for the job. He'll come cheap, and he has enough positive vibes attached to his name to satisfy a portion of the base. It also helps that Kansas State has had moderate success since bringing back another old Bill last year. I honestly think he'll be the coach there. If not, the Buffs are realistically looking at second tier assistants and the like. Best case scenario here is maybe enticing Troy Calhoun to come over from Air Force, but he's turned down better jobs.
Now let's get happy. Take a look at some coaches who were on the hot seat heading into this season but have managed to significantly improve their situation since we last checked in on them.
SITTING PRETTY
Ralph Friedgen, Maryland
2010 Record: 6-3
Given the low standards for achievement that currently exist at Maryland, I think Friedgen has done enough to ensure he gets another year. The Terrapins are going to a bowl. Everything else is gravy. It would take going 0-3 the rest of the way and losing the bowl game before anyone there is going to reconsider Friedgen's job.
Next 2 weeks: at Virginia, vs. Florida State
Chances for Survival: 95%
Ron Zook, Illinois
2010 Record: 5-4
This team has really surprised me. Those "replace all the assistants to keep your job" gambits rarely pan out. I give most of the credit to new offensive coordinator Paul Petrino, who's managed to squeeze some life out of an offense that had been increasingly moribund since the departure of Rashard Mendenhall, but Zook will reap the rewards of another year as head coach. The one hitch here could be that two of the Illini's wins have come against FCS competition, meaning they have to hit 7 wins to be bowl eligible. However, Illinois' last 3 games are all winnable, and I imagine the administration was in on the scheme to fluff up the win total at the possible expense of post season play. 6 wins should give the return of the Zooker in 2011.
Next 2 weeks: vs. Minnesota, @ Northwestern
Chances for Survival: 80%
Now for a couple of guys who've helped themselves over the past several games but aren't quite out of the woods just yet.
ON THE EDGE OF THEIR SEATS
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan
2010 Record: 6-3
RichRod is going to a bowl. Coming into the season, that seemed to be the top criteria for retaining his job. Thanks to that 67-65 win over Illinois, he's done it. With a game against 4-5 Purdue coming up this weekend, 7 wins is within reach. All that said, this Michigan team hasn't made it look easy, even in wins (see 67-65), and as great as the offense has looked with Denard Robinson, the defense has shown no signs of improvement. If anything it's regressed, and that's what's holding this team back. So there's still reason for important, influential people surrounding the program to think a change is in order. Especially considering many of those people HATE Rich the way Rich hates Tate Forcier. An upset loss to Purdue would put him in peril once again. On the other hand, an upset win over Wisconsin or Ohio State would shut everyone up. I think Rich is still living game to game. His chances for survival might look much different next week.
Next 2 weeks: @ Purdue, vs. Wisconsin
Chances for Survival: 70%
Mark Richt, Georgia
2010 Record: 5-5
Five games into the season, I was pretty sure the only thing that could save Richt's job was his enormous buyout (somewhere in the neighborhood of $10mil, allegedly). But UGA regrouped at home and got their act together against bottom dwellers Tennessee and Vanderbilt, ultimately ripping off 3 straight wins. A win against Florida would have gotten him off this list completely, but his Bulldogs at least looked competitive in defeat. However, Richt now finds himself in the untenable position of needing to win at least one out of his last 2 games to reach bowl eligibility. And if Cam Newton plays (all indications are he will as of now), Georgia has no shot of beating the Tigers. So that boils the whole season down to their big game with Georgia Tech. The Yellowjackets haven't looked much better than Georgia this year, but it's a rivalry game. You just never know how those are going to shake out. A loss there will make for quite the awkward Thanksgiving weekend in Athens.
Next 2 weeks: at Auburn, vs. Georgia Tech
Chances for Survival: 70%
And then there's this guy...
PLEASE COLLECT YOUR PERSONAL BELONGINGS BEFORE EXITING
Dennis Erickson, Arizona State
2010 Record: 4-5
Similar to Illinois, the Sun Devils elected to pad their win total with 2 games against FCS opponents this season. In order to reach bowl eligibility, they will have to win out the rest of the way to get to a bowl and save Erickson's job. The good news is two of those games are at home where they've played a bit better than on the road. The bad news is one of those games is against mighty Stanford, who ASU doesn't have a snowball's chance in Dennis Erickson's seat of beating.
Next 2 weeks: vs. Stanford, vs. UCLA
Chances for Survival: 10%
Finally, we have one new addition to the watch.
LATE ARRIVAL
Robbie Caldwell, Vanderbilt
2010 Record: 2-7
Caldwell only has his job because Bobby Johnson quit to close to the start of the season for Vanderbilt to get anybody else. Since taking over, the Commodores have been awful under his watch, the lone bright spot being stealing a win from Ole Miss early in the Jeremiah Masoli experiment. Since then, they've barely even been competitive in the SEC. Vanderbilt isn't as ruthless as other SEC schools when it comes to demanding results, but I can't see them tolerating this much longer. No one there was really happy with how Johnson basically left his coaching staff on their doorstep in the middle of the night. Barring a major upset down the stretch (say, against Tennessee), they're going to clean house and start over very soon.
Next 2 weeks: at Kentucky, vs. Tennessee
Chances for Survival: 10%
EARLY DEPARTURES
MINNESOTA
OUT: Tim Brewster
2010 Record: 1-6
Record at Minnesota: 15-30 overall, 6-21 conference
Tim Brewster was a prime candidate to get axed coming into this season and did little to help himself through the first month of the season, yet he somehow evaded my first roundup of coaches on the hot seat. Pure negligence on my part. And now he's gone. Brewster had never been so much as a coordinator at the college level, nor a head coach at any level, when Minnesota tabbed him to be their head coach in 2007. Apparently they had grown dissatisfied with Glen Mason's consistent ability to get the Gophers to a bowl game (5 in a row at the time of his ouster, 7 bowls in 10 seasons overall), but not much else, and decided a guy with no experience whatsoever held the key to taking UM to the next level. And it was a disaster. Despite some favorable scheduling allowing the Gophers to sneak into back to back Insight Bowls, it was clear the program was regressing all the while, ultimately bottoming out in this miserable season. Brewster leaves Minnesota never having beaten any of the school's chief rivals and never winning a single one of those 1,001 trophies they have in the Big 10.
Potential Candidates: Everyone from Tony Dungy, Phil Fulmer, and Mike Leach has had their name attached to this job. Obviously none of those guys are realistic candidates. I talked a bit about this already in this week's Big 10 Q&A, so I'll reiterate that the best, and in my opinion most likely, candidates are successful non-BCS head coaches like Kevin Sumlin from Houston and Al Golden from Temple. Sumlin previously spent some time at Minnesota as an assistant. This is not a great job, but it's not a bad one either. They can get a good coach, but they're not going to get the big names (like Jim Harbaugh) or the elite assistants (like Gus Malzahn).
COLORADO
OUT: Dan Hawkins
2010 Record: 3-6
Record at Colorado: 19-39 overall, 10-27 conference
In their last season in the Big 12, the Buffaloes went out with a whimper, and so to did Dan Hawkins. After a hugely disappointing 2009 season, there was little hope for improvement this season, but a lack of financial resources (aka their boosters suck) kept them from turfing Hawkins. The Hawk leaves Boulder having taken the Buffs to just one bowl game (an Independence Bowl loss to Alabama in 2007) and never posting a winning record. His teams were an astounding 2-24 outside the state of Colorado. Basically, his entire tenure at CU was one big public service announcement for the likes of Chris Peterson and Gary Patterson: Be sure you've got the right job before you leave your mid-major utopia. They ain't all Florida.
Potential Candidates: Though they seemingly came up with the cash to send Hawkins packing, there's still no indication that they're in financial shape to make competitive offers for the better candidates looking to hop aboard The Carousel. There's a reason Bill McCartney is a serious contender for the job. He'll come cheap, and he has enough positive vibes attached to his name to satisfy a portion of the base. It also helps that Kansas State has had moderate success since bringing back another old Bill last year. I honestly think he'll be the coach there. If not, the Buffs are realistically looking at second tier assistants and the like. Best case scenario here is maybe enticing Troy Calhoun to come over from Air Force, but he's turned down better jobs.
Now let's get happy. Take a look at some coaches who were on the hot seat heading into this season but have managed to significantly improve their situation since we last checked in on them.
SITTING PRETTY
Ralph Friedgen, Maryland
2010 Record: 6-3
Given the low standards for achievement that currently exist at Maryland, I think Friedgen has done enough to ensure he gets another year. The Terrapins are going to a bowl. Everything else is gravy. It would take going 0-3 the rest of the way and losing the bowl game before anyone there is going to reconsider Friedgen's job.
Next 2 weeks: at Virginia, vs. Florida State
Chances for Survival: 95%
Ron Zook, Illinois
2010 Record: 5-4
This team has really surprised me. Those "replace all the assistants to keep your job" gambits rarely pan out. I give most of the credit to new offensive coordinator Paul Petrino, who's managed to squeeze some life out of an offense that had been increasingly moribund since the departure of Rashard Mendenhall, but Zook will reap the rewards of another year as head coach. The one hitch here could be that two of the Illini's wins have come against FCS competition, meaning they have to hit 7 wins to be bowl eligible. However, Illinois' last 3 games are all winnable, and I imagine the administration was in on the scheme to fluff up the win total at the possible expense of post season play. 6 wins should give the return of the Zooker in 2011.
Next 2 weeks: vs. Minnesota, @ Northwestern
Chances for Survival: 80%
Now for a couple of guys who've helped themselves over the past several games but aren't quite out of the woods just yet.
ON THE EDGE OF THEIR SEATS
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan
2010 Record: 6-3
RichRod is going to a bowl. Coming into the season, that seemed to be the top criteria for retaining his job. Thanks to that 67-65 win over Illinois, he's done it. With a game against 4-5 Purdue coming up this weekend, 7 wins is within reach. All that said, this Michigan team hasn't made it look easy, even in wins (see 67-65), and as great as the offense has looked with Denard Robinson, the defense has shown no signs of improvement. If anything it's regressed, and that's what's holding this team back. So there's still reason for important, influential people surrounding the program to think a change is in order. Especially considering many of those people HATE Rich the way Rich hates Tate Forcier. An upset loss to Purdue would put him in peril once again. On the other hand, an upset win over Wisconsin or Ohio State would shut everyone up. I think Rich is still living game to game. His chances for survival might look much different next week.
Next 2 weeks: @ Purdue, vs. Wisconsin
Chances for Survival: 70%
Mark Richt, Georgia
2010 Record: 5-5
Five games into the season, I was pretty sure the only thing that could save Richt's job was his enormous buyout (somewhere in the neighborhood of $10mil, allegedly). But UGA regrouped at home and got their act together against bottom dwellers Tennessee and Vanderbilt, ultimately ripping off 3 straight wins. A win against Florida would have gotten him off this list completely, but his Bulldogs at least looked competitive in defeat. However, Richt now finds himself in the untenable position of needing to win at least one out of his last 2 games to reach bowl eligibility. And if Cam Newton plays (all indications are he will as of now), Georgia has no shot of beating the Tigers. So that boils the whole season down to their big game with Georgia Tech. The Yellowjackets haven't looked much better than Georgia this year, but it's a rivalry game. You just never know how those are going to shake out. A loss there will make for quite the awkward Thanksgiving weekend in Athens.
Next 2 weeks: at Auburn, vs. Georgia Tech
Chances for Survival: 70%
And then there's this guy...
PLEASE COLLECT YOUR PERSONAL BELONGINGS BEFORE EXITING
Dennis Erickson, Arizona State
2010 Record: 4-5
Similar to Illinois, the Sun Devils elected to pad their win total with 2 games against FCS opponents this season. In order to reach bowl eligibility, they will have to win out the rest of the way to get to a bowl and save Erickson's job. The good news is two of those games are at home where they've played a bit better than on the road. The bad news is one of those games is against mighty Stanford, who ASU doesn't have a snowball's chance in Dennis Erickson's seat of beating.
Next 2 weeks: vs. Stanford, vs. UCLA
Chances for Survival: 10%
Finally, we have one new addition to the watch.
LATE ARRIVAL
Robbie Caldwell, Vanderbilt
2010 Record: 2-7
Caldwell only has his job because Bobby Johnson quit to close to the start of the season for Vanderbilt to get anybody else. Since taking over, the Commodores have been awful under his watch, the lone bright spot being stealing a win from Ole Miss early in the Jeremiah Masoli experiment. Since then, they've barely even been competitive in the SEC. Vanderbilt isn't as ruthless as other SEC schools when it comes to demanding results, but I can't see them tolerating this much longer. No one there was really happy with how Johnson basically left his coaching staff on their doorstep in the middle of the night. Barring a major upset down the stretch (say, against Tennessee), they're going to clean house and start over very soon.
Next 2 weeks: at Kentucky, vs. Tennessee
Chances for Survival: 10%
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